An Aussie comeback and dodgy weather forecast could yet deny England victory at Edgbaston. Paul Krishnamurty updates the state of play...
"Overcast conditions, humidity and rain breaks favour bowlers. There's a strong chance that at some point tomorrow morning, England rip the heart out of the Aussie middle order with a spate of wickets."
Latest score: Australia 284 & 124-3, England 374
Match Odds: England [1.64], Australia [3.5], Draw [9.4]
All three results are still in play after Australia edged Saturday's proceedings at Edgbaston. They are still chasing the game at effectively 34-3 in their second innings but hope springs eternal with Steve Smith at the crease and a deteriorating pitch.
There aren't many matches where ninth wicket stands will play such an important part. Smith and Siddle's 88 partnership saved Australia in their first innings. Woakes and Broad's 65 may well prove the decisive margin at the end.
England still in command after tail wags
From a grim overnight position, Australia fought back with four early wickets and bagged us five units profit from our unders runs bet. At 300-8, it felt roughly an even match. 374 was always going to leave them a mountain to climb to set a tough target and so it is proving.
According to the Australia 2nd Innings Runs market, 280 is par from here. In that case England would need 190 - no certainty, but still heavily odds-on.
That is of course just an estimate. With Smith at the crease, 350 plus is possible, in which case Australia would probably be favourite defending 260 on a turning pitch. Equally, don't rule out a collapse.
Rain could intervene
Weather will be a significant factor. This BBC forecast shows a persistent threat of thunderstorms and showers on both days. The draw price has crashed into [9.0] - it was matched earlier at [48.0] - and there may be further to fall.
Backing the draw would only appeal, perhaps, as a trade because the market invariably goes crazy when rain stops play. I still think there's every chance the match will end tomorrow and land the bet advised yesterday on Day 4 Evening in Test Match End.
English bowlers to thrive in conditions
Overcast conditions, humidity and rain breaks favour bowlers. There's a strong chance that at some point tomorrow morning, England rip the heart out of the Aussie middle order with a spate of wickets. I'm laying 275 or more at [1.8] and 250 or more at [1.46].
Where does that leave previous positions? Three bets advised on Australia on either Twitter or here on Friday amount to a 19 unit risk, returning 47.5 if they win and level in the case of a draw.
Whilst it is not out of the question, I'd be happy to get out of these badly timed positions level so will be aiming to cash out at [2.4]. If that changes, I'll update on Twitter.
Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty
Lay Australia to score 250 or more 2nd Innings Runs 5u @ [1.46]