Test previews / Ed Smith / 21 March 2012 /

In the first of series of extracts from his new book, former England batsman and new Betting.Betfair star recruit Ed Smith explains that home advantage does matter and then tells us why it might work in Samit Patel's favour if he doesn't make his Test debut over the next couple of weeks.

'How big an issue is home advantage in cricket? Fortunately, the International Monetary Fund has done some of the work for us by examining one element of that question: how lucky are you if you make your Test debut at home rather than abroad?

Two economists at the IMF analyzed 790 cricketers from seven different Test countries. What did they find? Unsurprisingly, specialist batters who made their debuts at home did better than those debuting abroad. But the margin by which home debutants did better is astonishing. Specialist batsmen debuting at home score on average 32% more than those debuting abroad. The researchers call home debut players "lucky" and abroad debut players "unlucky".

Secondly, the IMF study showed home-debut players then disproportionately got invited back for more Test matches. The reason is that national selectors fail to distinguish between "lucky" and "unlucky" debutantes. In the language of economists, they do not "control" for luck.'

Extracted from LUCK - What it means and why it matters, published this week by Bloomsbury

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If Samit Patel knew those statistics, his enthusiasm for making his debut at Galle might be slightly dimmed. He may have more chance of a long Test career if he is made to wait until the first Test of the English summer - not that a self-confident sportsman would ever like to catch himself making such a calculation.

The bigger issue, of course, is how home advantage affects the whole team. This is probably the best England side ever to tour Sri Lanka - though Nasser Hussain's team of 2000-1 did brilliantly well to recover from 0-1 to win the series 2-1.

History tells us, however, how hard it is for England teams to win in the subcontinent. Sri Lanka is one of the toughest destinations of all. England have played only three proper series in Sri Lanka (ie more than a single Test) and have lost two and won only that aforementioned series under Hussain.

Conditions play a huge role in cricket in the subcontinent. That is a far broader issue than just the pitch. The heat and humidity are at least as important. It was so hot this week that Matt Prior decided to keep wicket without his pads in the warm-up game. Humidity is the most draining issue of all. The hardest conditions I've ever played in were on an England "A" tour to Malaysia and India. When I was batting in Kuala Lumpur, it was so humid that the bat kept flying out of my hands - in fact, on a few shots the bat travelled further than the ball!

Few pundits predicted England's extremely disappointing performance in the Test series in Pakistan. That will have hurt Andrew Strauss and his team, and I expect England to be focused, better prepared and very competitive.

But the odds for a Sri Lanka win at Galle - [3.4] - still look generous. I know it is a different format, but Sri Lanka played well in the triangular ODI series in Australia earlier this month. They were lively and energetic, overcoming India and pushing Australia hard in the finals. It was also a personal triumph for Sri Lankan captain Mahela Jayawardene, whose decision to move up the order sparked his team's success.

Now, back on home soil, they will be very tough to beat.

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