St Lucia T10 Blast Tips: Lions could post a monstrous total

Darren Sammy
Sammy could inspire Lions
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Ed Hawkins previews the two matches from the Darren Sammy Stadium at Gros Islet on Thursday in the T10 tournament

"The Lions should win this tournament. They are expected to be so dominant that Betfair Sportsbook have not priced the outright"

Two sides need to bounce back

Soufriere v Mabouya
Thursday 25 June 17.30
TV: live on Dream 11 Fan App/YouTube

The Soufriere Sulphur City Stars stank the place out in their opener. They suffered a heavy beating at the hands of Choiseul Clay Pots. Defending 90, the game was done and dusted with eight balls to spare and the Pots had eight wickets in the hutch.

It was a total which looked skinny considering the short boundaries that were on display but they can at least take some solace in the fact it was the fault of one man - Dalius Monrose's 16-ball six was criminal. And they were indebted to Shani Mesmain for a brutal 43 off 17 to give them some respectability.

Probable Soufriere XI X Emmanuel, A Hippolyte, D Monrose, D Didier, S Mesmain, B Tisson, W Prospere, T Hippolyte (wkt), S Pamphile, Q Mesmain, K Prospere

Mabouya produced the worst effort of day one, though, losing by a massive 56 runs against the Repos. Their bowlers went round the park for 152. It was a huge score and suggests Mabouya have significant issues in the field.

Ironically, Lennice Modeste was anything but with eye-watering figures of nought for 37 from his two overs. Zac Edmund showed a bit of something with the willow, hitting 34 from 15 balls.

Probable Mabouya XI O Chango, D James (wkt), C Polius, M Shoulette, Z Edmund, R Smith, C Ange, N Deterville, S Severin, M Stanisalus, R Rithal, D Smith

We're expecting the match odds market to settle at a choice affair of [1.95] the pair but we'd expect the chaser to be in the game early on in this tournament and with two weak-looking bowling sides, don't be shy of taking anything chunky in-play in the first dig.

Lions short favourites

Mon Repos Stars v South Castries Lions
Thursday 25 June 19.30
TV: live on Dream 11 Fan App/YouTube

The men who did the damage for Repos against Mabouya were openers Shervin Charles and Sabinus Emmanuel. They cut loose from ball one and it will be interesting to see them go up against the Darren Sammy-led Lions.

Charles struck 65 from 26 balls and wicketkeeper-batsman Emmanuel was even more destructive, smoking 49 from just 18. That is insane hitting.

Probable Repos XI S Charles, S Emmanuel (wkt), M Wells, K Augustin, R Lesmond, H Charlery, C Charlery, S Descartes, C Emmanuel, K Gaston, D Henry, J Lesmond.

The Lions should win this tournament. They are expected to be so dominant that Betfair Sportsbook have not priced the outright. The exchange market is wise, too, and makes them no better than [1.43]. Worth noting, though, they did lose one of their three warm-ups.

With Sammy and Windies international Johnson Charles they are in a different league. These two could win it on their own. To that end, we're looking for a play on the innings runs if Castries bat first. Alex Antoine and Kester Charlemagne are no slouches, either.

Lions squad D Sammy, J Charles, A Antoine, K Charlemagne, M Monrose, K Charles, N Leo, DJ Baptiste, C Callender, T Simon

Look for big runs

In T10's short history the chaser has dominated. This is because teams have struggled to know what a good score is. Before the Vincy Premier League the bias was 67% in favour of the side batting second.

We mention the Vincy because the trend was busted. And we think it was busted be-cause all matches were played at the same venue, producing slower, tackier wickets. Chasing became hard. In fact, the bias was 61% for the side batting first.

With two games a day on the Darren Sammy Stadium surface we would expect a similar trend to emerge. It's also why we note that, historically, first-innings scores of 100 are enough 60% of the time and more than 110 returns a winner 80% of the time.

Indeed, we could see some monster totals in this tournament and we're keen on playing big numbers for first dig runs because of the short boundaries, particularly where the Lions are concerned. Sammy and Charles could cut loose.

In the warm-ups the Lions were in destructive mood, whacking 138 and 121 in their two bat-first outings. Have a look for prices of more than 160 and 170.

The last ten first-innings T20 scores at the DSCS (1-2 denote match won by side bat-ting first or second) read: 103-2/185-1/165-2/172-1/160-2/109-1/115-2/185-1.

***

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