St Lucia T10 Blast Day Four Tips: Royals could be value trade

Darren Sammy Cricket Stadium
The Darren Sammy Stadium pitch is a road
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Ed Hawkins returns to discuss the trends and analysis for Friday's matches in the 10-over tournament from Gros Islet...

"The Darren Sammy Stadium wicket – not to mention the short boundaries – looks like to be a nightmare for bowlers this tournament"

Central Castries Mindoo v Gros Islet Cannon Blasters
Friday 26 June 17:30
TV: live on Dream 11 Fan App/YouTube

Magnificent Melius

Central Castries enjoyed a whopping 50-run win in their only outing so far. After amassing an impressive 129 for three against the Leatherbacks, their bowlers produced an expert squeeze. Sort of.

It was a squeeze without wickets. They took only one, which has to raise questions about the Leatherbacks' batting approach. Dillan John's two overs cost just six runs. Earlier Stephen Naitrim's blistering 53 from 22 balls put them on their way.

Probable Castries Mindoo XI S Naitrim, G Prospere, K Lesporis, Aleyn Prospere, A Auguste, J James, J Eugene, K Arnold, Alvin Prospere, D John, E Elibox

The Blasters also have a win under their belt. Perhaps more importantly, they also beat South Castries Lions in a warm-up. The Lions, don't forget, are expected to be by far the strongest team in the tournament to the extent that Betfair Sportsbook are not offering outright odds.

They look to be significant contenders. They destroyed Fort North Raiders with the batting display of the tournament so far. Opener Kimani Melius, a Windies under-19 star, smashed 103 from just 34 balls. He hit 11 sixes. That is extraordinary hitting, even if we know the standard is a little below something like the Birmingham league.

Blasters squad D Polius, G Serieux, T Gabriel, T Chicot, D Edward, L Solomon, V Gabriel, D Edward, J Goodman, L Edwards, K Melius, K Sexius, S Gerson

With Melius so dangerous it is no surprise to see the match odds market favour Blasters at [1.73]. If that could hold with the toss in their favour (batting first) it looks like a wager.

Fort North Raiders v Laborie Bay Royals
Friday 25 June 19.30
TV: live on Dream 11 Fan App/YouTube

Take on Raiders

Given what Melius did do the Forth Vieux bowling attack, it is hard not to come to the conclusion that the discipline is a devastating weakness to their chances. It is a bit mean to single out an individual but Shem Paul did go for 47 off his two overs. It was amazing he was asked back after the first six.

Paul redeemed himself with the bat with 50 from 23 in a useful batting effort. Jevin Isdore also struck well. They look to be a one-dimensional outfit, however.

Probable Raiders XI: J Isdore, J Peter, C Johnny, S Paul, A Prince, J Harding, T Gifford, D Naitrim, A Albertson, E Sextius,

Lions have yet to play and named their squad late. Their marquee player is Arwen Edward, who has represented St Lucia. The hitting combination he forms with Denlee Anthony is likely to be crucial. Also watch out for Murlan Sammy, the brother of Darren.

Probable Lions: XI D Anthony (wkt), A Edward, M Sammy, M Francois, S George, N Andrew, T Theodore, Z Edwin, T Peter, T Moses, DJ Pierre

The match odds market is keen on the Raiders, which is a surprise. They are no better than [1.54]. Given their issues with the ball, it would make sense to get with chunky prices on the Royals. The caveat is this: they must bat first to make use of the toss bias and to put that attack under pressure.

Toss key

The Darren Sammy Stadium wicket - not to mention the short boundaries - looks likely to be a nightmare for bowlers this tournament. Here are the first-innings scores so far (1-2 denote match won by side batting first or second): 101-1/82-2/166-1/129-1/152-1/90-2. As you can see we have a burgeoning toss bias, favouring the side batting first.

In T10's short history the chaser has dominated. This is because teams have struggled to know what a good score is. Before the Vincy Premier League the bias was 67% in favour of the side batting second.

We mention the Vincy because the trend was busted. And we think it was busted because all matches were played at the same venue, producing slower, tackier wickets. Chasing became hard. In fact, the bias was 61% for the side batting first.

With two games a day on the Darren Sammy Stadium surface we expect a similar trend to emerge. It's also why we note that, historically, first-innings scores of 100 are enough 60% of the time and more than 110 returns a winner 80% of the time.

The last ten first-innings T20 scores at the DSCS (1-2 denote match won by side bat-ting first or second) read: 103-2/185-1/165-2/172-1/160-2/109-1/115-2/185-1.


Cricket...Only Bettor introduces you to the St Lucia T10 Blast

Ed Hawkins,

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