St Lucia T10 Blast Day Five Tips: A crack in Pots' armour?

Bat first at DSCS
The darren Sammy Cricket Stadium
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Ed Hawkins previews another double header from the Darren Sammy Stadium on Saturday in the ten-over thrash...

"The Leatherbacks lost their opening match and in doing so produced one of the most bizarre chases in T10’s short history"

Choiseul Clay Pots v Mabouya Constrictors
Saturday 26 June 17:30
TV: live on Dream 11 Fan App/YouTube

Smashing Pots

The Pots had a smashing time in their only match so far against Soufriere Suplhir, chasing down a target of 91 with eight wickets and eight balls to spare.

Opening pair Jason Simon and Junior Henry showed the requisite aggression in the powerplay to ensure they didn't lose their way. Henry blitzed most impressively with 42 off 21. There was also a good cameo from Audy Alexander with 21 from 16.

Probable Pots XI J Simon (wkt), J Henry, A Alexander, V Smith, C St Rose, C Richardson, V St Ange, A Simon, S Theopan, B Bess, S Laffeuile

The Constrictors have one win and one defeat to their name. The loss came in their opener when their bowlers failed to live up to their team's moniker - they conceded 152.

Last time out, they produced a superb bowling effort. Sufriere Sulphir could manage only 82 for eight in their ten overs. Murgaran Shoulette was the pick with two overs for just one run.

Possible Constrictors XI C Polius, O Changoo, Z Edmund, M Shoulette, D James, R Smith, C Ange, R Rithal, N Deterville, L Modeste, S Severin

The Pots are [1.73] jollies but that only looks fair if they win the toss and bat. We are keen on the reverse toss bias in this tournament so Constrictors could well shorten up nicely if they get to blitz first up from [2.14].

Leatherbacks v Gros Islet Cannon Blasters
Saturday 25 June 19:30
TV: live on Dream 11 Fan App/YouTube

Leathered

The Leatherbacks lost their opening match and in doing so produced one of the most bizarre chases in T10's short history. Set a stiff 130 against Central Castries, they seemed to suffer some sort of collective existential crisis. Or they were protesting at something.

It was a slow hand clap of an innings as they crawled to 79. They couldn't even blame a collapse. They lost one wicket. One. Opener Joseph Alex had a go but his 44 not out off 31 had a hint of protecting the average about it.

Leatherbacks squad A Linus, A Steven, C Jevon, T Caleb, A Kissinger, P Tristan, A Zayee, J Alex, H Quaine, E Devon, W Nehemiah, W Isiah, E Graig

The Blasters are shaping up nicely having blown away the Fort North Raiders and Central Castries. They are beginning to look a significant challenger to the Lions as the best team in the tournament.

Against the Raiders they amassed 166 for no wicket with Kimani Melius, the under-19 Windies hitter, smashing a century. Melius only lasted three balls against Castries (four-six-out) but they still posted 103. Their bowlers then knocked over Castries for 71 with Larry Edwards taking three wickets.

Probable Blasters XI K Melius, T Gabriel, D Edward, D Polius, G Serieux, V Gabriel, L Solomon, Dane Edward, L Edwards, T Chicot, Dornan Edward.

The match odds market cannot have the Leatherbacks at all after their effort in game one. Blasters are as short as [1.32]. Although that's way too skinny for the format, it could be Leatherbacks are hopeless. Watching brief.

Bias holds

The Darren Stadium wicket still looks strong for batting. Here are the first-innings scores so far (1-2 denote match won by side batting first or second): 82-2/103-1/101-1/82-2/166-1/129-1/152-1/90-2. It is three wins from eight for the chaser.

In T10's short history the chaser has dominated. This is because teams have strug-gled to know what a good score is. Before the Vincy Premier League the bias was 67% in favour of the side batting second.

We mention the Vincy because the trend was busted. And we think it was busted be-cause all matches were played at the same venue, producing slower, tackier wickets. Chasing became hard. In fact, the bias was 61% for the side batting first.

With two games a day on the Darren Sammy Stadium surface we expect a similar trend to emerge. It's also why we note that, historically, first-innings scores of 100 are enough 60% of the time and more than 110 returns a winner 80% of the time.

The last ten first-innings T20 scores at the DSCS (1-2 denote match won by side bat-ting first or second) read: 103-2/185-1/165-2/172-1/160-2/109-1/115-2/185-1.

***

Cricket...Only Bettor introduces you to the St Lucia T10 Blast


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