Sri Lanka v New Zealand First T20 Tips: Phillips still value for big runs

Sri Lanka v New Zealand
Saturday 9 November 13:30
TV: live on TNT Sports

Sri Lanka v New Zealand First T20 team news

Sri lanka beat West indies 2-1 in a T20 series last month and they did so by pretty much ignoring pace bowlers and deploying spin. It would be a surprise if they decided to change strategy now.

That means that only two pace bowlers - Matheesha Pathirana and Nuwan Thushara - may play. The hosts have the potential to bowl a full quota of spin with Wanindu Hasaranga, Maheesh Theekshana and Dunith Wellalage to the fore. Kamindu Mendis and Charith Asalanka could also be deployed.

There is a familiar look to the batting line-up with Pathum Nissanka at the top of the order followed by the Kusals (Mendis and Perera). Bhanuka Rajapaksa is charged with adding an explosive finish.

Possible Sri Lanka XI: Nissanka, Kusal, Perera, Asalanka, Kamindu, Rajapaksa, Hasaranga, Wellalage, Theekshana, Pathirana, Thushara

New Zealand were a disappointment in the last World Cup and this series gives them an opportunity to move on. There are a core of senior players such as skip Mitch Santner, Glenn Phillips, Mark Chapman and Lockie Ferguson who will be expected to guide some ingenues.

Opener Tim Robinson is one. He could be paired with Will Young. Dean Foxcroft could bat at No 3 otherwise there's a clutch of players looking for a middle-order role: Henry Nicholls, Josh Clarkson, Mitchell Hay, Michael Bracewell.

The lattter should be viewed as crucial in this series. Canterbury all-rounder Zakaray Foulkes may be ideal for the No 9 all-rounder slot.

Possible India XI: Robinson, Young, Foxcroft, Nicholls, Phillips, Chapman, Bracewell, Santner, Foukes, Ferguson, Duffy

Sri Lanka v New Zealand First T20 pitch report

We saw slow and low surfaces in Dambulla for the West Indies series. It would be odd if Sri lanka, who were perfectly suited to conditions, would change that. the strategy for the team batting first is unlikely to be targetting 180-plus. Instead they should make sure to get to 160-odd and then hope the surface and scoreboard pressure does the rest. In 13 night matches there is no toss bias although dew could be an issue. We will know more for game two. The average run rate is 8.8 and under 165 has come in five times in that period. We would be keen to short NZ runs at that point.

Sri Lanka v New Zealand First T20 match prediction

Write the Kiwis off at your peril. Despite this being a different format their extraordinary 3-0 success in the Tests in India is hard to forget. By contrast this assignment looks like a piece of cake.

A beating in the Test series in Sri lanka before that turnaround win, however, may be a sobering thought. Sri Lanka are 1.511/2 and although we won't be playing those odds it is hard not to view this as a contest between a home side expert and well-drilled in these conditons versus a weakened and inexperienced New Zealand outfit.

We may well take 2.809/5 New Zealand at some stage but for game one it may be best to take a watching brief. We would like to see evidence that they can cope with the spin test even though in Phillips, Chapman and Bracewell they have some box office performers.

Sri Lanka v New Zealand First T20 player bets

Phillips and Chapman were two names we've been waiting to back in this series. Have Sportsbook obliged with value on the top bat markets? Only for one of them. On two-year win rate Phillips has a 25% win rate so the 7/24.50 is not too bad. Chapman (20%) at the same price is very disappointing, though, and given the size of numbers we've seen about him in the past we were hoping for even a small rick on a man who has shown good hitting in Asia.

There's not much being given away for Sri Lanka batters save to say that Asalanka and Rajapaksa probably deserve more respect at 15/28.50 and 11/112.00 respectively. Asalanka has four wins in 21.

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