South Africa v Zimbabwe Third T20 Betting: Zimbabwe's best chance of an upset
Ed Hawkins checks out the stats and trends for the action for Benoni on Sunday and suggests some runs bets...
"The toss bias is right up their alley and if they can just get Taylor to motor and find a way to 150 or 160 their bowlers could be capable of springing an almighty shock"
South Africa v Zimbabwe
Sunday 14 October 13.30
TV: live on Sky Sports
Hosts could ring changes
South Africa have the series wrapped up with a game to spare so don't be surprised to see them make changes. They have been treating this T20 clash as an audition for the 50-over format more than an audition for the shorter form, which is why Tabraiz Shamsi was made No 1 spinner with Imran Tahir given time off.
Shamsi's figures of 1 for 35 off four overs was probably not what South Africa were looking for. They would have also been disappointed at how expensive Lungi Ngidi was. He conceded nine an over and was expensive at the death.
Just as well then that Robbie Frylinck and Dane Paterson impressed. Both took two wickets and both were miserly. Junior Dala might come in for Ngidi.
There is a possibility of South Africa shifting the batting order around. Heinrich Klaasen could open instead of Quinton de Kock. He could take the gloves, too, allowing Gihahn Cloete a game. They may try to squeeze all-rounder Christiaan Jonker back in, too.
If only Zim could bat
Zimbabwe have been good with the ball throughout this one-day tour. They have consistently bowled solid line and length and had South Africa under pressure. Even defending just 133 they felt they were in the game when Faf Du Plessis was third out with the score on 58.
Brandon Mavuta, the leggie, continues to impress while Stuart Williams is performing admirably with bat and ball. He picked up top bowler and top bat honours in the game at Potchefstroom. Brendan Taylor continues to disappoint. Again he got a start but couldn't go on. If he had come off just once Zimbabwe might have been able to break their duck.
Toss bias assists tourists
This will be the first twenty20 international played at Willowmoore Park. Previously there have been 21 ODI. Of those, 13 were won by the side batting first. Domestically that trend is the reversed in T20 with five of the last eight won by the team defending. The last five first-innings scores read: 172-185-136-158.
Could Saffers take it easy?
South Africa are [1.13] with Zimbabwe [8.00]. On the head-to-head, as we've said previously, it's a tough ask to get with the tourists. It's now 38 consecutive defeats.
But they have a sniff here. The toss bias is right up their alley and if they can just get Taylor to motor and find a way to 150 or 160 their bowlers could be capable of springing an almighty shock.
We could make a point here about the home team taking their eye off the prize somewhat. And they could. But, let's face it, with their record against Zimbabwe so strong there has been plenty of room for complacency before and it hasn't crept in.
Klaasen and Miller fancies
If South Africa tinker with their order as we suggested, Klaasen could be worth a speculative nibble at big numbers for top South Africa runscorer. Klaasen also has ground form. He thrashes and bashes for Titans there with an average of 53 in eight matches. A word too for David Miller, who plundered 120 off 61 balls for the Knights on his last T20 appearance. Klaasen and Miller are both at 6s with Betfair Sportsbook.
De Kock is the 11/4 jolly. We've supported him twice and lost twice because he's not been skinny enough. But patience has run out. Let's hope we can get some back on a runs quote though at 5/6. Sportsbook go over 22.5.
Mire to the rescue?
Could it be final time lucky for Taylor? We supported him through thin in the ODI series for top bat but he never copped. Maybe now is the time to get involved at 10/3. Williams probably appeals more at 7/2, though. Let's not forget Solomon Mire at 9/2. He has been out of the side but it is possible he could slot back in at the top of the order in an effort to kickstart things.