Hawk Eye on South Africa v Pakistan Second ODI: Hash and Faf worth following
Ed Hawkins analyses the batsman and bowler markets for game two in Durban on Tuesday
"With Quinton De Kock rested, Amla may feel more pressure than normal to drop anchor. And we should hope his game is unaffected by the loss at St George's Park. That's because the 10/11 with Sportsbook that he busts 30.5 runs or more is a smidgen of value. He has scored 31 or more 97 times in 167 ODI innings, a rate of 54%. That gives us a two per cent edge, which is not to be sniffed at."
Hashim Amla carried his bat in the first ODI in Port Elizabeth. But he didn't get much credit. In some quarters, he may even have got some of the blame for South Africa's loss.
It was a classic Amla show with shots on both sides of the wicket. And the strike rate of 90 was impressive. The problem was that no-one blitzed alongside him. Amla's role has always been to provide a platform for the big hitters.
With Quinton De Kock rested, Amla may feel more pressure than normal to drop anchor. And we should hope his game is unaffected by the loss at St George's Park. That's because the 10/11 with Sportsbook that he busts 30.5 runs or more is a smidgen of value.
He has scored 31 or more 97 times in 167 ODI innings, a rate of 54%. That gives us a two per cent edge, which is not to be sniffed at.
Amla's record at Durban is good enough to warrant support, too, He averages a shade under 40 in ten innings and in six of those he would have won this bet.
This is not the only spot of value on Amla. But this is the less stressful of options. It's a stroll to the foothills compared to scaling greater heights.
For example, Sportsbook go 7/4 that he manages a 50. On his career record he should be 13/8. If we filter runs scored on home wickets, Amla should be skinnier still with a hit rate in line with a 6/5 shot.
Putting faith in Amla has not been for the faint-hearted of late. He suffered a miserable dip in form but he is beginning to look as though he is back to his reliable self.
We're not sure we can make a case for him to be top South Africa runscorer at 13/5, however. The numbers don't stack up even if AB De Villiers and de Kock has pushed his rate down to the 20% mark over the years.
We'd also like to find some maths which make David Miller a bet at 6/1 for top South Africa bat but he has no win in the last two years with De Kock, the correct jolly normally, out of the picture. Miller's record at Durban is fantastic.
Faf Du Plessis's is almost as good and the 4/1 that he tops is worthy of a bet. We have him slightly shorter with a success rate of 22 per cent. That coupled with ground form is an edge.
Status quo remains for top bowler
Before game one we discussed the plethora of value on the top Pakistan bowler market. The status quo remains and it will continue to do so until Mohammad Amir gets chalked up at the right price.
Sportsbook's rating of 7/2 is way off. We don't expect him to play and with him taking up a slice of the book you can't really have a bad bet.
Usman Shinwari, who we were on for Port Elizabeth, is 7/2, Shadab Khan is the same price, Hasan Ali is the 10/3 jolly and Shaheen Shah Afridi, who is being kept out of the side, is 4s. All should be skinnier.
Hasan and Shadab shared honours last time with one apiece. Hasan, who was kept back, could be in line for cheap wickets at the death. But Shinwari will reckon he can do better with the new ball after failing to land a blow.
2019 - points p-l: +2.65 (10 points staked)
2018 - points p-l: +5.86 (87 points staked)
2017 - points p-l: +5.29 (26 points staked)