Rabada marginal value to out bowl his SA rivals
We are always looking to get the favourite beat and Imran Tahir might not be the most rock-solid of jollies when South Africa and India meet under lights at Cape Town on Wednesday.
We think this could be one for the seam and swing bowlers instead of the spinners with conditions batting second treacherous indeed. Only six teams in 29 day-nighters have managed to recover from the blow of bowling first.
Tahir, of course, is an exceptional bowler and he could quite easily upset our theories. After all, he is the world No 1. But we're trying to find an edge to make one of his rivals value. Or prove that he is, in fact, a bad favourite by being prohibitively short.
For a start we have him rated as an 11/4 shot and Betfair Sportsbook have chalked him up at 13/5. So on pure numbers we're already ahead. It's a blessing then the man who should really thrive in these conditions, Kagiso Rabada, checks out. He is rated at 12/5 and Sportsbook go 11/4.
There's a bit more to chew on. Tahir is wicket-less so far on surfaces which have given some assistance to Indian spinners Yuz Chahal and Kuldeep Yadav. But the real difference is the quality of batting.
India's batsmen are vastly better players of spin than South Africa's so although it looks as though Tahir is way off beam, he's just struggling against a superior opponent.
It is true that no South Africa bowler has shone yet. Rabada has just the one wicket and Morne Morkel one. Andile Phehlukwayo, a right-arm quick, has two.
Morkel could be considered a threat to Rabada here. True. He gets good pace and bounce. And is more than capable of nipping a few off the seam to take honours. The problem is, the price isn't right. He should be bigger than 7/2.
He does have a good record at Newlands, though. He has six wickets in two innings when bowling last. Rabada has four in two with the same filter.
Phehlukwayo has to be respected. He has a bustling action and can extract movement. But, again, the price is not right. He is 4/1 when he should be 5/1.
I think we can all agree that in pace bowler-friendly conditions it is not an exact science as to who will finish as the top wicket-taker, particularly when just two wickets could be enough to win it. So we have to be pretty stringent with our bets using price as a guide.
So on the numbers Rabada is a more than fair shout. We would be worried about Morkel but the Newlands record isn't outstanding enough to make us overlook the price gap.
Jaspirit no Bum in top India bowler betting
As for India's top bowler market, Jasprit Bumrah and Bhuv Kumar should relish a slippery surface, finally giving them a chance to get bragging rights over the spin duu of Chahal and Kuldeep. They have two apiece to seven and six respectively.
Both Bumrah and Kumar have been reliable when conditions suit on tour - notably the third Test in Jo'burg - and their efforts in Cape Town in the Test should give them confidence. Kumar took six wickets and Bumrah four.
Understandably, Betfair Sportsbook can't split these four. They make Bumrah, Kumar, Chahal and Kuldeep all 7/2 shots. But we know that, historically, Bumrah is the man on this market as we have said before and he's more like a 13/5 poke.