Ed Hawkins asks whether we should all be in a mad rush to bet the Aussie opener in Jo'burg on Friday...
"Warner has beaten that mark 20 times in his last 28 T20 innings, averages 29.9 per inning s against South Africa, has 202 runs in five at the venue and a career mark of 33.6 as an opener"
Openers the rage
Two of the most destructive openers in the world game are on show at The Wanderers - and punters are likely to be in a hurry to get with them. So are Quinton de Kock and David Warner value on the runs markets?
21/10 De Kock, with one win in three on the top-bats against England, has a 40% win rate on two-year data. But wait. The study sample of just 10 games is not big enough to warrant an all-guns-blazing wager. It's frustrating, particularly with a World Cup approaching and we might have to consider overruling the rule book in future and drafting in three-year data.
Warner, priced at 13/5, is difficult to call for the same reason. It's three wins in 10. Surprisingly Aaron Finch gets favourite status at 12/5 when he has a healthy study period returning odds of closer to 9/2. On those records alone, a wrong favourite is enough for most. Warner, it has to be said, boasts a 40% win rate in franchise cricket.
A safer wager is to take Sportsbook's 5/6 that he busts 25.5 runs. He has beaten that mark 20 times in his last 28 T20 innings, averages 29.9 per inning s against South Africa, has 202 runs in five at the venue and a career mark of 33.6 as an opener.
SA last two years top bowler wins/matches
Phehlukwayo 3 2t/17
Rabada 1 t/5
Ngidi 3 2t/7
Hendricks 1 t/6
SA last two years top bat wins/matches
De Kock 4/10
Du Plessis 2/5
R Hendricks 2/13
Van Der Dussen 1/12
Australia last two years top bat wins/matches
M Marsh t/2
Smith 4/36 (career)
Aussies overrated for boundaries
The fours and sixes markets are often fertile ground for value seekers and this contest is no different. The layers appear to price up on reputation rather than record so from that point of view it is no surprise to see the muscular Aussies as favourites on the hitting lists.
Australia, boasting the likes of Aaron Finch and David Warner, are 5/6 and 10/11 jollies to win the fours and sixes match bets respectively. We're struggling to find any evidence that they should be such a price. South Africa are, respectively, 11/10 and 6/5.
On the filters below, South Africa come out on top in each of our three metrics. They are particularly potent at home, although we shouldn't get carried away by the gulf because of games played at altitude, like Jo'burg.
On three-year numbers, though, there is a sizeable edge with South Africa averaging one more four and o.1 points shy of an extra six against Australia.
Initially we feared that AB De Villiers may have been a factor. But no. He has played only five games in that period. Moreover, Australia are denied the services of Glenn Maxwell (absent with an elbow injury) who is responsible for 57 of their fours and 37 of their sixes. Only Aaron Finch (77/46) has hit more. A cheap dismissal for Finch and any bet could well hack up.
Last two years fours/sixes averages per game
South Africa 13/6.7
Last three years fours/sixes averages per game
South Africa 13.3/6.7
Last three years fours/sixes averages per game home v away
South Africa 14.4/7.5