ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 26 November 2009 /

England aim for an unprecedented seventh-straight win over South Africa but as Ed Hawkins explains, form goes out the window in the day-night game at Cape Town where the toss is crucial

Team news
"I feel back to full fitness and excited if selected for Friday." That is Stuart Broad's music to the ears of the England management as they prepare to for the third one-day international against South Africa in Cape Town. In a way, Broad's return is a double boost for such a pivotal contest in the five-game series.

For a start it means England don't have to play Sajid Mahmood, who went round the park more times than the drinks sellers at Centurion. The extra bonus is that England have a bowler perfectly suited to exploit the helpful conditions if they bowl second. But more on that later.

Broad for Mahmood is likely to be the only change for England following their impressive seven-wicket destruction of the hosts in Pretoria. But what are South Africa thinking?
They look to be a batsman light with their all-rounders starting at No 6 and after posting 250 in game two they may consider bringing Herschelle Gibbs back. Pacemen Wayne Parnell and Morne Morkel have been added to the squad.

Match odds
If England win at Newlands they will make history. They will become the first side to inflict seven consecutive defeats on South Africa in terms of head-to-heads and they are very good price to do so.

The fact that England are enjoying such a golden run against Graeme Smith's side makes one think that it cannot possibly last forever. After all, South Africa have a reputation for being a far better one-day side.

However, that belief, not to mention the above statistic, is irrelevant. This match is likely to be won the by the side that wins the toss. That makes South Africa at [1.56] horrendous value while England are stand out at [2.74].

Under the lights at Newlands the ball moves prodigiously through the air. Who can forget a young lad from Burnley called James Anderson announcing himself with a destruction of Pakistan two World Cups ago?

Of the last 14 floodlit contests at Newlands, only two have been won by the team batting first.

When faced with such an overwhelming bias, historic form, recent form, head-to-heads and perceived confidence levels mean little. If you have one wager on this game, make sure it is on the side that bats first.

Pitch conditions
The average score batting first in floodlit games at Newlands is 247 in the last 10 matches. That gives you an idea of how hard it has been to chase. Of those 10, only India (against Kenya) and Kenya (against Canada) managed to win batting second. But they were supposed to given the weak opponents. West Indies were shot out for 54 under lights in 2004 and Australia succumbed for 93 in 2006. There is no rain forecast.

Top batsman
There is no point having a top-bat bet until you know who is batting first. Why? Because a study of where the runs are scored in the last 10 day-night ODIs at Newlands highlights perfectly the change in conditions for batsmen.

In the last 10 first-innings eight batsmen from Nos 1-4 has top scored. In the second innings, five times has a batsman from Nos 5-11 top scored.

Graeme Smith, on his home ground, is [3.45] for honours. A good bet if South Africa bat first. A terrible one if they don't. Likewise Andrew Strauss, who has shown terrific form on tour, at [4.10].

Players to take advantage of in the second innings have to be Any Other Batsman (Boucher, McLaren, Albie Morkel etc) for South Africa at [6.80] and England's Eoin Morgan at [6.80].

Featured market
Kevin Pietersen is [2.70] to score a 50. With his feet all over place at Centurion and the prospect of batting second, it could be a lay

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