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India v England 4th ODI Betting: Toss will prove crucial

Suresh Raina carries bettors' hopes in Mohali

"The first-innings average in the last ten in Mohali is 273, which is more than healthy"

More than 250 first-innings runs at 1.758/11

Ed Hawkins expects England to improve for game four in Mohali on Wednesday - providing Alastair Cook can call correctly

India v England
Start time: 06.30GMT
Live on TV: Sky Sports 1


India
India have no need to shuffle the pack after two hammerings of England but a team often guilty of complacency would be wise to look for ways to improve. They have retained the same squad - the selectors announced a group only for the first three matches - for the rest of the series and if there is to be a change it could come in the batting. Opener Ajinkya Rahane has two failures in a row following a duck in Ranchi. Cheteshwar Pujara deserves a go for the last two matches. Otherwise a bowling unit which destroyed England for 155 should line up again.


England
Even if England wanted to pick an 80 per cent fit Stuart Broad to add much-needed bowling experience, they couldn't. The paceman is snowed in after his flight from Heathrow was cancelled. He will not join up with the squad at all. So England must make do and mend. Trailing 2-1 with two to play it is clear the time is now for action. The first casualty should be Jade Dernbach who has displayed as much control as a jelly baby on ice. An economy rate of 7.79 from three matches is shambolic. Stuart Meaker deserves a run. There is little England can do to strengthen the batting aside from Craig Kieswetter - just 42 runs so far - making way for Jos Buttler, who can also keep wicket.



First-innings runs/conditions

The first-innings average in the last ten in Mohali is 273, which is more than healthy. A wager on more than 250 at around 1.705/7 is a sensible bet. But of most interest is the toss bias. In 20 games, 14 have been won by the side batting first. With chasing so difficult, England will feel perturbed if they fail to bat first. In ten matches at the venue India have won six, including a five-wicket stroll against England in 2011.


Match odds
It would be foolish in the extreme to wager before the toss given the bias mentioned above. So prices of 1.635/8 India and 2.53n/a England look irrelevant at this stage. There would be surprise if there was not a major move on India's price if they were to bat first, less so England. Ordinarily in a situation where we have a toss match we would side with the team with the greater odds. It is harder to do, however, in this contest because England were so shabby in Ranchi. They batted woefully and gun players like Kevin Pietersen and Eoin Morgan are yet to show form. It is true, however, that rarely do England string back-to-back horror shows together with the willow so we would expect an improved showing. And if Alastair Cook calls correctly, then they are a tasty option in-running.


Top India runscorer
Rahane, who we expect to be given the chop, hit 91 off 104 balls on this ghround against England in October 2011. Gautam Gambhir also hit a half-century in that match. However, the value clearly lies in the Any Other market. MS Dhoni's recent good form - and his promotion up the order in Ranchi - has convinced the market makers that the skipper should be an outright betting option so Suresh Raina drops out and under the auspices of 'Other'. Dhoni, however, only batted so high in Ranchi because it was his home crowd and he wanted to please the faithful. He should drop below Raina again. Bet here at 5.004/1.


Top England runscorer
Pietersen and Samit Patel have ground form. KP knocked 64 from 61 balls in England's last outing and Patel smashed 70 from 43 balls. Pietersen is 4.30100/30 but Patel is available at 7.006/1 under Any Other.


Recommended bets
Any Other top India runscorer at 5.004/1
More than 250 first-innings runs at 1.758/11


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21 January 2013

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