Ed Hawkins: Weather could have decisive say in tight one-day contest

Ed Hawkins
04 September 2013

Pietersen is a key man for England

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Our cricket correspondent casts his eye over the markets as England and Australia prepare to meet at Leeds on Friday in the first of five 50-over clashes...

"There has been an overreaction to England's decision to rest their gun bowlers."

Recommended bet
Back-to-lay the series draw at 4.507/2

There is not much to choose between England and Australia in terms of talent when the sides begin a five-match one-day series in Leeds on Friday.

The series market has Australia clear favourites, however. They are no better than 2.0421/20 to end on a high what has been a horrible tour. England are 2.447/5 with the draw 4.507/2.

That is some gulf. It is easily explained, though. There has been an overreaction to England's decision to rest their gun bowlers. There is no James Anderson, Stuart Broad or Graeme Swann. Alastair Cook, the captain, is also wrapped in cotton wool with Eoin Morgan leading instead.

England could be accused of complacency or arrogance even. But in truth their players are knackered. It is not unreasonable to expect what is left behind to mount a challenge against an Australia squad which includes some players who would not even be household names in their own front rooms. This lot were woeful, by the way, in the Champions Trophy at the start of the summer.

With the bat, man for man the teams cannot be split. Morgan and Ravi Bopara underlined their class with effortless centuries against a pugnacious Ireland side in tricky circumstances on Tuesday. Then there are the solid and reliable Joe Root and Jonathan Trott. The latter can drop anchor and support while Root, in fairness, can do the lot. Both men have superb records in the last 12 months. Root has 590 runs at 49 and Trott 583 at 72. Indeed, with that average Trott may be worth backing for top England series runscorer. And don't forget Kevin Pietersen.

Pietersen has had a lean spell in this format. Since February 2012 he has only played five matches. His commitment has been called into question. But we don't buy that. With an average of 41 he is comfortably this bunch's most impressive performer because of the length of his career. He should revel in top-dog status.

Muscular batting
For Australia, Michael Clarke, Aaron Finch, Shane Watson and Shaun Marsh are the willowmen which stand out. Clarke is something of a surprise inclusion because of his back problem - he even bowled in the warm-up win over Scotland - so it would be folly to bet reckoning that he might have to sit out a game or two.

Finch, who hit 148 off 166 balls against the Scots, will strike fear in England hearts following his record-breaking century at the Rose Bowl in the first Twenty20 while Marsh also notched a ton in Edinburgh.

Phil Hughes, with 459 runs, is Australia's top bat in the last 12 months but few will be backing him for top runscorer. The value shout could well be Adam Voges, who averages more runs than anyone who has appeared at least three times in the study period.

The edge
So far, so close. If Australia do have an edge, then it is with the ball. Clint McKay and Mitchell Johnson are a cleverer, more destructive new-ball pairing than Steven Finn and Boyd Rankin, who are likely to be England's first-choice.

McKay has 23 wickets in his last 12 months (14 matches) and Johnson, something of the pantomime villain these days, 21 (13). Both average under 22. Johnson is perhaps the one unique performer on either side. That has been a bit of a buzz phrase this summer but it has been relevant when discussing these teams.
Normally Swann would get that billing. But Johnson, harshly treated by fans and the media, remains a stellar performer. He can bend the ball at good pace early on and his death bowling is not to be sniffed at. He can bat, too.

Finn is England best bowler by some distance. Rankin only made his debut against Ireland (his real team, of course) while Chris Jordan and Jamie Overton are ingénues. There is a lot resting on Finn's shoulders, particularly when his wickets can be on the expensive side.

Value?
But is that advantage with the ball enough to warrant the price differential? Effectively we are saying that Australia have two better players than England. It's not much is it? Nor is it scientific analysis. But, frankly, betting on any sport often comes down to the head-to-heads, opposite number versus opposite number.

Fortunately, you don't have to answer that if you don't want to. The wise money may be on two bets on the correct score market, backing 3-2 home and away wins at 5.309/2 and 4.2016/5 respectively.

Nor should we discount the stalemate, which can be backed on the series market, or correct score at 2-2, at 4.507/2. September showers are never far away, particularly with Yorkshire, Lancashire and Wales hosting games one, two and three. The weather forecast for Friday's game is dreadful at the moment.

With that in mind, and not forgetting the unpredictable and unknown nature of the two squads, the shrewdest wager of all could be a back-to-lay of the draw at 4.507/2.

Recommended bet
Back-to-lay the series draw at 4.507/2