ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 27 January 2009 / 1

Australia find themselves in the extremely unusual position of having already lost an ODI Series before the final match. Does that mean South Africa will take their foot off the pedal or are they likely to twist the knife even deeper, asks Ed Hawkins.

This was not supposed to happen. South Africa, content with a historic Test series victory in Australia, were expected to sit back for the one-day series, slouching because of the energy had been sapped after their five-day heroics.

Instead with a game to spare they have inflicted a one-day series defeat on the Aussies, too - the first time that Australia have lost home Test and limited-overs contests since 1992. Incidentally that was also the last time they lost a Test series at home. West Indies were the conquerors and they also won the one-day leg in the form of the grandly-named World Series.

The home team are [1.63] to win the fifth ODI in Perth early on Friday with South Africa [2.56]. Given that South Africa have been dominant it is a gulf in odds which makes no sense.

Neither series has been a humiliation for Ricky Ponting and his team but with Australia failing to keep both series alive to the final match, it is crystal clear that the decline has set in. For game five they desperately seek any crumb of comfort.

It will not be found in South Africa's record in dead rubbers, even if the Proteas let their intensity slip in the final Test in Sydney. In their previous five such games in 50-over cricket, they have won four and lost one.

Australia's last dead rubber in a series they had already lost came against New Zealand in Hamilton in February 2007. It was something they had not experienced in this Millennium and promptly lost, bewildered by the novelty of it all.

If South Africa do struggle to lift themselves one more time at the end of what has been an arduous tour, that could be down to the loss of wicketkeeper Mark Boucher. He has been the heartbeat of this side, particularly in the absence of Graeme Smith.

Boucher, of course, missed the series-securing win in Adelaide because he has been hobbling around on a toe crushed by a spearing Shaun Tait delivery and will not take part at the WACA. With all the qualities he brings to South Africa, it is surprising to discover that they are actually a better side without him.

When he is in the team South Africa have won 62% of the time. That is such a tremendous success rate that it is hard to imagine being improved upon. But up it indeed goes when he is watching rather than playing. From 73 games South Africa have won 48, a win percentage of 66.

With that in mind it is odd to discover that South Africa's first-innings average without Boucher is actually lower than when he is in the team. The mark stands at 249 without but jumps to 289 when he is available lower down the order.

The WACA pitch is true enough for one to believe that Boucher's batting will not be missed. The runs come up front on this flat part of one of the most isolated cities in the world - Perth.

From the last five one-day matches, openers have top-scored in an individual innings seven times. It is a ratio good enough to suggest getting with the openers on the top runscorer market should pay dividends again.

Their success may in part be due to the lack of swing for new ball bowlers in Perth. It just doesn't deviate, whether that be a day game or floodlit affair. The lights seem to make no difference, with a 16/14 split in favour of the outfit batting first.

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1. Dave Nolan | 28 January 2009

   Hi Ed

   At the start of this series I thought there would be little to choose between these teams.Obviously as the summer has progressed South Africa have proved to be the superior team quite clearly.The betting has never reflected this.In the last match Australia were 30 odd for 2 wickets after 6 overs but were still trading at 1.84 they further shortened to around the 1.30 mark before the middle order dissapointed once again.Hard to believe that anyone could be interested at backing them at 1.63 to turn things around in Perth but,its been like this all Summer the betting has been a real headscratcher.Still there have been great opportunities to profit for those with an objective view

   regards

   Dave Nolan

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