1st ODI Betting: England v New Zealand

Vettori is part of an experienced Kiwi squad

Ed Hawkins takes a look at the series odds and match markets as the Champions Trophy hopefuls meet at Lord's on Friday in the first of three contests

"England have not lost a home series since 2009 but it is not often they give side a good duffing"

Recommended bet
England to win 2-1

England v New Zealand
Start time: 10.45BST
TV: live on Sky Sports


England
England, jollies for the Champions Trophy and a force to be reckoned with on home soil, will be expected to sweep this series. But they are workmanlike rather than spectacular and perhaps only a few grades above the Kiwis man for an. Alastair Cook is expected to open the batting with Ian Bell followed by Jonathan Trott, Joe Root and Eoin Morgan. It is solid (stodgy?) stuff. But they are most exciting with the ball. Stuart Broad, James Anderson and Steve Finn will be an almighty handful. Jos Buttler will keep wicket and bat at No 6.


New Zealand
The Kiwis have shuffled their pack. There are no spots for Trent Boult, who is injured, and Neil Wagner who so impressed in the Test outings. Instead we see more familiar, older faces. Ian Butler, Daniel Vettori, Grant Elliot and Kyle Mills are all in the squad. They bring know-how which trumps England's pretty inexperienced unit by comparison. As ever, Ross Taylor and Brendon McCullum will be under pressure to score the bulk of their runs. James Franklin, Tim Southee and Nathan McCullum are three decent all-rounders. In that regard they have an embarrassment of riches.


Series betting
Not much room for manoeuvre here. England are skeletal at 1.374/11 with New Zealand 3.45 and the draw 10.5019/2. It is tempting to reckon the stalemate is the value call because of the possibility of rain ruining affairs. However, the forecast for HQ and game one is good while Southampton skies, venue for match two, are looking pretty good. The best bet comes on the series correct score market. We can get 2.3811/8 about England winning 2-1. England have not lost a home series since 2009 but it is not often they give side a good duffing. Since their super run began on their own turf, they have won to nil three series. And as New Zealand are durable, despite a dip in form since the last World Cup, they should sneak a win.


Match odds
We need to be extremely confident about taking prices as short as 1.511/2 but doing so about England in this format is a leap indeed. Granted, they have come to the fore in ODIs recently (they used to be predictable and prone to disaster) and have lost only two series since the last World Cup. But we still need a greater period of strength before we get on at such prices. On flat, true wickets, which Lord's is, they are at their most vulnerable and we fancy a back-to-lay of the Kiwis at 2.9015/8. Indeed, if any side are capable of exposing bad old habits, it is New Zealand. We are big fans of the brains trust of Brendon McCullum, Vettori and Mills. They can come up with a plan to trade as favs here.


First-innings runs
The first-inninsg average is 248 in the last ten at Lord's. But it might be a better wicket than that. In two of the last three more than 270 has been scored. We are not averse to going more than 260 here.


Top England runscorer
Ian Bell, 4.607/2 top-scored in England's last match at the venue with 88 against South Africa. But it was Trott, 4.707/2 and Root, 5.805/1who most impressed in New Zealand in the three-match series only a few months ago. They scored 171 and 163 respectively.


Top New Zealand runscorer
McCullum is New Zealand's go-to man. He scored 222 runs in the previous series between the two. He is 4.607/2. Taylor is 4.707/2. Martin Guptill and Luke Ronchi should open. They are 5.309/2 and 6.205/1 respectively.


Recommended bet
England to win 2-1 at 2.3811/8

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