New Zealand v India Third ODI Betting: Time for the hosts to be competitive

Ed Hawkins
27 January 2019

WIlliamson needs to lead by example

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Ed Hawkins is going to give the Kiwis another chance to show better form at the Bay Oval early on Tuesday...

"With the new ball, Bhuv Kumar and Mohammad Shami knocked over New Zealand’s dangerous fast starters and with the old, Kuldeep did the rest with his second four-wicket haul"

New Zealand v India
Monday 28 January 02.00
TV: live on Sky Sports

What's happened to the Kiwis?

Two matches in and everyone - including India, no doubt - are waiting for the Kiwis to turn up. The hosts are supposed to be an aggressive, organised and skilled ODI team.

There has been no evidence of that so far with two crushing defeats, one by eight wickets in Napier and and one by 90 runs at the Bay Oval. Mismatch alert.

It's difficult to understand, though, for studious followers of the format because the Kiwis are better than this. They should at least be competitive.

Spin has been their undoing with Kuldeep Yadav destroying their challenge. Confusing again because New Zealand were decent against spin in the UAE.

In terms of personnel it's tricky to see what tweaks they can make.One change is Matt Henry, an out-and-out wicket-taker, coming in. But do they leave out Trent Boult, Lockie Ferguson or an all-rounder?

What's happened to the Kiwis?

India are on cruise control. It's all coming easily for them at the moment with their batters seeing it like a beachball and spinners dominating. This must feel like a home series.

Rohit Sharma top scored last time out with a typically brutish show and concerns about Virat Kohli missing the two final matches don't seem to hold much water when he's in this form.

But there were contributions all the way through in India's 324. Dhawan, Kohli, Rayudu, Dhoni and Yadav (who struck at 220) showed their monstrous strength in depth.

With the new ball, Bhuv Kumar and Mohammad Shami knocked over New Zealand's dangerous fast starters and with the old, Kuldeep did the rest with his second four-wicket haul.

Shami's form is such, by the way, that Jasprit Bumrah may struggle to get back into the XI.

Wicket might slow up

We're at the Bay Oval for back-to-back matches. We are waiting confirmation on whether a different strip is being used. If it's the same one then things could be sluggish. The first-innings scores (1-2 denote match won by team batting 1st or 2nd) read: 324-1/319-1/371-1/223-2/294-1/282-1/230-2/210-2.

What's happened to the Kiwis?

That emerging toss bias at the venue doesn't do much to help the Kiwis. They're a chasing team and India are supreme chasers themselves.

At this stage, we're looking for assistance for the hosts from either a dodgy wicket or weather because betting them is getting harder and harder to justify. The drift in odds help though - India are now 1.645/8 with New Zealand 2.526/4.

Look, if the proper Kiwi team turns up then we're happy with that price. Can they really be razed three games in a row? We know they're better than that.

What's happened to the Kiwis?

The Kiwi top-bat market is tricky to decipher. With new ball bowlers so dominant - as Bhuvi and Shami have been - we can make a case for a lower-order player. But with spinners so dominant - as Kuldeep has been - where do we go from there? A Mitchell Santner maybe at 25s (Sportsbook)? Tim Southee at 90s? Perhaps the wise money is on the purest talent, Kane Williamson or Ross Taylor at 5/2 and 4/1 respectively.

Roll-up for Rohit

Rohit is value at 13/5 for top bat for India. Just as we said he was for game two. Kohli is 11/5 and he's creeping towards the right sort of price for us. Unfortunately, this is our last chance before he departs so if you want a taste of the good stuff you'll have to go with a bet which, technically, isn't value.

What's happened to the Kiwis?

Henry might not make it into the XI again. But that won't stop us betting him for top Kiwi bowler at 9/2. Statistically he's 13/8. Personally we'd drop Tim Southee to give the Kiwi more pace and bounce up front. They need to do something to unsettle the visiting top order. It's an unlikely switch but don't miss out on Henry. It's a tremendous wager and there's no cost if he doesn't start.

Ed Hawkins P-L

2019: +7.23
2018: +20.53pts
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l