Premier League Tips

One would have thought this week's Hawk Eye would be straightforward. We have the opportunity to bet a top runscorer who cops 44% of the time with a bookmaker who rates him a 26.7% chance. Easy, right?

Not quite, unfortunately. Although we should be loading up on Virat Kohli, who boasts that extraordinary hit rate over the last two-and-a-bit years, there is a trend in Tests hosted by New Zealand which is discombobulating to say the least.

It's been discussed in our first Test match preview and in Cricket...Only Bettor further below. But suffice to say, batting in the first match innings is much harder than batting in the second match innings. Team averages range from 276 to busting 400 respectively. The question is, then: do we want India to bat or bowl first for our wager?

If India bat first, does that make Kohli a more likely wager because his technique and temperament holds better than his team-mates when the pressure is on? Or do we prefer him to bat on a wicket that is flattening out, making things easier? But also making it easier for the others?

Perhaps we should stop trying to read the Matrix and stick to what we know. And that is: we bet wrong prices. Kohli is certainly that.

It is canny, however, to consider the importance of the toss when considering Sportsbook's 7/2 that he scores a first dig ton. You definitely want India batting second. Kohli's ton rate is in line with a 2/1 shot. The even money offered for a fifty is bang on.

Kane Willliamson, Kohli's equal some might say, is not a wager at 5/2 with Sportsbook. On the data he should be more like 7/2. Tom Latham is underrated at 4/1. Latham had a poor series in Australia and it may be justified to bet hm only batting second.

Last two years NZ top bat wins/matches
Williamson 5/23
Watling 2/22
Taylor 3/22
Latham 5/24
De Grandhomme 0/21
Nicholls 3/23
Blundell1/4
Southee 1/18

Last two years India top batsman wins/matches
Kohli 11/25
Pujara 5/25
Rahane 1/24
Ashwin 1/20
Jadeja 1/15
Pant 1/10
Agarwal 2/9

This week's Cricket...Only Bettor reveals why teams should bowl first in New Zealand

Head Southee

Tim Southee has been underrated to take top bowler honours for New Zealand in the first-innings. Sportsbook go 10/3 with the revered Trent Boult taking up a chunk of the book at 11/4.

If we're being honest, we'd prefer it if Sportsbook had made the rick the other way round. Boult has a superior record at this ground to Southee, beating his strike rate of 72 with a mark of 51. However, it is hard to ignore Southee's superior win rate - one more win in one fewer match.

For reassurance, then, consider the records of New Zealand bowlers in home Tests only in the last five years. Southee pips Boult by two wins (six overall) and gets two shared honours. It is perhaps more important that Neil Wagner is not playing. He also has six wins and has an even money record anywhere on the data.

Last two years NZ top bowler wins/matches
Southee 6/18
Boult 5/19
Wagner 7 2t/21
De Grandhomme 1 t/11
Henry 1/6
Patel 1/7
T=tie

India top bowler wins/matches
Bumrah 2 t/11
Shami 2 2t/23
Ishant 4 t/22
Ashwin 7 2t/20
Jadeja 1/17
Umesh 2/13

Hawk-Eye P-L

2020 - points p-l: -9.17 (18.5 points staked)
2019 - points p-l: +30.25 (133 points staked)
2018 - points p-l: +9.86 (89 points staked)
2017 - points p-l: +5.29 (26 points staked)