Hawk Eye on New Zealand v India First T20: Kuldeep the main man again

Ed Hawkins
06 February 2019

Munro can hit a long ball

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Ed Hawkins runs the rule over the side markets for game one from Wellington early on Wednesday...

"It's also good news that Kuldeep is in good form and has form against the opposition. In the recent ODI series, which India barely broke sweat in to win 4-1, Kuldeep did much of the damage"

Big edge for punters

It's not often we say that a market has the right favourite. And that we're going to back it anyway. But it would be wrong to dismiss Kuldeep Yadav's chances for top India bowler in the first T20 at the Westpac Stadium just because he heads the list.

It is true that most punters have an aversion to betting the favourite. The quest, or obsession, for value is so deep, so intrinsic that it feels wrong, dirty even, to go with what everyone else has already plumped for. After all, Kuldeep is there because most people have betted him.

But not enough have. Otherwise he would be shorter than 3/1 for honours. This remains value as, overall in his 17-match international career he has a hit rate of 43%. That means he should be closer to 11/8. That's an enormous edge in our favour.

It's also good news that Kuldeep is in good form and has form against the opposition. In the recent ODI series, which India barely broke sweat in to win 4-1, Kuldeep did much of the damage. He took eight wickets in four matches. Kuldeep was rested for the final ODI, also at Wellington.

And that's our biggest concern about the bet. Whether he plays. There is talk of India choosing between him and Yuz Chahal for the main spinner's slot. Still, it's not something to fret about because we get our money back if he doesn't play.

As for Chahal, who played in all five matches and took one more wicket than our man, he gets a 3/1 quote also. So that helps doesn't it? Joint-jolly Kuldeep. Not that Chahal is a bad bet himself. We rate him more like 5/2 on career numbers so at least you've got a stand in if India decide not to pick Kuldeep.

More six appeal

To get you back on the straight and narrow, take on the favourite in the Betfair Sportsbook market. India are 10/11 jollies and we can't find any evidence which suggests that it's a good bet. Instead the Kiwis should get your support at 11/10.

We have said before the sixes market is skewed. The best team does not hit the most sixes. Sometime the worst team does, possibly because they have players throwing caution to the wind because they are so far behind the rate or the game is already up. Sometimes the highly-rated team bats within themselves because their bowling unit has kept the chase low.

That happened in the ODI series between the two. New Zealand had shown consistently they hit more sixes than India but they were almost always underrated.

In T20, the gulf remains. India are vastly superior, as discussed in the match preview, but New Zealand hit more sixes. This is brains versus brawn.

In the last year New Zealand average 8.75 sixes per match and India 6.4. Over two years it's 7.5 plays 6.1. At home and away respectively it's 9.2 plays 6.4. No team has hit more sixes at home than New Zealand in the last two years. You will also note how remarkably consistent India are in their striking.

Yes we are aware that Martin Guptill, one of New Zealand's biggest hitters is missing with injury so much will depend on blaster Colin Munro. But India are also without Virat Kohli and KL Rahul. That muddies the waters somewhat but not enough for the odds to be what they are. A choice affair would seem fairer, if a little generous to the tourists given form.