New Zealand v India First T20 Betting: Hosts there to be shot at with men out

Ed Hawkins
06 February 2019

Rohit leads in Kohli's absence

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Ed Hawkins previews the first of three matches and the formbook suggests they could go the same way as the ODI from Wellington on Wednesday

"India should have too much, particularly if they chase. They have 11 wins from 13 in the last two years"

New Zealand v India
Wednesday 6 February 07.00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Struggling Kiwis

ew Zealand are hoping to put a desperately disappointing ODI series behind them with a change in format. It could be a forlorn hope, however.

Twenty20 is the weakest if their three suits - they are rated No 6 in the world - and they have only two wins in their last seven series. Their inability to compete in three of the ODI against India could return to haunt them.

No doubt they are still feeling a little sore after they failed to chase 252 in the final rubber to give the scoreline a more respectable feel at 3-2. The batting issues which plagued them won't be so keenly felt but they are a gun player down in Martin Guptill, even if he was struggling for runs.

Kane Williamson is expected to open alongside Colin Munro in Guptill's absence with wicketkeeper Tim Seifert at No 3. Ross Taylor will bat at No 4 followed by big hitters Jimmy Neesham and Colin de Grandhomme. There is no Trent Boult so Lockie Ferguson and Tim Southee will compete to join Ish Sodhi, Doug Bracewell and Scott Kuggeleijn.

Kohli still absent

India are not at full strength, either. Virat Kohli, who sat out the last two ODI, has not returned while KL Rahul continues his extended leave for bringing Indian cricket into disrepute. This rather muddles their top order choices.

Shubman Gill, the exciting young prospect, should bat at No 3 with Rohit Sharma and Shikhar Dhawan retaining the opening berths. Then there will be a promotion for Rishabh Pant to No 4. Pant is a fantastic talent. Dinesh Karthik and MS Dhoni offer middle-order experience.

To complete their XI India will make either or choices on Krunal Pandya or Kedar Jadav and Yuz Chahal or Kuldeep Yadav. It may be smarter, given how the Kiwis struggled against the latter pair, to pick both. In Hawk Eye we analyse these two as possible top bowler bets. Bhuv Kumar and Khaleel Ahmed offer pace options.

Little evidence of night conditions

There's not a huge number of games to bone up on for the Westpac Stadium. There have only been six since 2010. And only one of those was a night match which means the four out of six wins for the chaser isn't relevant. The one night game produced a terrific encounter. The Kiwis posted 196 against England and held on by 12 runs.

India chasers supreme

The big worry for punters about taking the 1.715/7 about India is the Kohli factor. Fret not. They have won 13 of their last 14 without him.

Still, punters have long memories and it is hard to forget India's lacklustre performance in the T20 series in Australia when they went 1-0 down. It was the kick up the backside they needed and had rain not intervened in Melbourne they would have recovered to take the three-game series.

That loss was something of a blip. It was only their second in 13 matches. That's a record the 2.3811/8 Kiwis envy. They only have two wins in their last ten.

Given that record and the absence of Guptill and Boult it is reasonable to conclude that India should have too much, particularly if they chase. They have 11 wins from 13 in the last two years. By contrast New Zealand won one in their last nine fielding first.

Mulling Munro

Williamson top scored with 72 in that night game against England last time out. He is 13/5 with Betfair Sportsbook to land top Kiwi bat. Munro could well be the value, though, on two-year run lists. He's outscoring the lot with 692 in 18 with an insane strike rate of 173. Go hard, or go home.

New kids catch eye

Rohit and Shikhar dominate the two-year run lists for India. Nothing surprising there. They have played the most games and have batted the most overs. They are 12/5 and 5/2 respectively with Betfair Sportsbook. Gill and Pant are more talented than 5/1 and 7/1 shots respectively, though. On pure ability it's arguable they are value.

Ed Hawkins P-L

2019: +10.59
2018: +20.53pts
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l