Tshwane Spartans v Paarl Rocks: Get ready to roll with Rocks

Ed Hawkins
28 November 2019

Vince has had a good campaign

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

Ed Hawkins previews the Mzansi Super League action from Centurion on Friday with the visitors a tempting option

"Spartans are an even money chance over 12 games, which is not that impressive. A run rate for them of 8.09 and one against them of 8.69 doesn’t bode well, either"

Tshwane Spartans v Paarl Rocks
Friday 29 November 15.30
TV: live on Sky Sports

Spartans flatter to deceive

The Spartans are the only unbeaten team left in the competition. But that's probably because three matches have been washed out. Having managed two wins from two, it's a conundrum to work out how good they are.

An answer is to combine their record this season with last. This makes them an even money chance over 12 games, which is not that impressive. A run rate for them of 8.09 and one against them of 8.69 doesn't bode well, either.

It might not be that surprising considering they lack the sort of game-changing spinner that is so important. Instead they rely on pace in the form of Morne Morkel, Lungi Ngidi and Tom Curran.

Their batting is led by AB De Villiers, Dean Elgar, Heinrich Klaasen and Theunis de Bruyn. Occasionally they go left-field with their batting order. In their win last time out versus Jozi, Roelof van der Merwe was promoted above De Villiers (crazy) and preceded to almost lose them the match with five from 12 balls.

Probable XI De Bruyn, Elgar, De Villiers, Klaasen, van der Merve, van Biljon, Mulder, Curran, Morkel, Ngidi, Sipamla

Well balanced Paarl

We like the Rocks. They went top of the table with victory over Nelson Mandela Bay Giants in a toss game. It should be between them and the Giants for the title.

They have the sort of balance which exposes Spartans' obsession with big names. They are batting down to No 9 with a sprinkling of top quality in the key positions up front: Henry Davids, Cameron Delport, Faf Du Plessis and James Vince, who is having a terrific season.

Most impressive are spinners Bjorn Fortuin and Tabraiz Shamsi, who are beginning to work as a team. Against the Giants they won the game with four wickets for 52 runs between them off eight. When you have a pair capable of operating like that the Rocks are tough to crack

Probable XI: Davids, Delport, Du Plessis, Vince, Makhanya, Mosehle, Udana, Adams, Viljoen, Fortuin, Shamsi.

Big chase bias

The average first-innings score is 55 games at SuperSport Park is 157. But it's a chasing venue with six out of ten hunting down targets. The tipping point is 170 with almost 80% defended from such a position.

Rocks solid batting second

Even though the Spartans chased with aplomb against the Rocks earlier in the edition for one of their wins, it might not come as a huge surprise that we're not keen on putting our faith in them at 1.845/6. The Rocks should settle at around the 2.1011/10 mark.

Obviously the most important factor is the toss. We're not sure we want a repeat of Elgar thrashing the Rocks attack to all parts with such a flip bias in play. So make sure you keep it on side. The 2.1011/10 Rocks price should be alive during the first dig.

Swerve AB

There is no evidence that De Villiers should be as short as 23/10 with Sportsbook for top Spartans bat honours. There's no evidence Elgar should be 11/5, either, but given the former won't open and the latter will it's possible to make a case for Elgar.

We will keep faith with Davids for the Rocks. He's in touch and is seeing the ball nicely. Back Paarl Rocks batting second at 2.1011/10 or better (2pts) Back Henry Davis top Rocks bat 10/3 Sportsbook (1pt)">The 10/3 that Sportsbook offer is value on the data from this edition of the tournament and last.

For top bowlers, we don't have a particularly strong view but recognise Shamsi as the correct favourite for Rocks at 23/10. Lungi Ngidi also catches the eye at 7/2. If this were an ODI we'd be all over it but the pacer has not played often in franchise leagues bar his terrific stint with Chennai Super Kings. On that form, it's far from a mug wager but we know he's been struggling with rhythm.