Durban Heat v Nelson Mandela Bay Giants
Saturday 30 November 10.30
TV: live on Bt Sport 3
Heat up and running
Durban Heat got their first win of the season on Thursday, beating Cape Town Blitz with a trend-busting performance at Newlands.
Chasing a massive 182 for victory, Heat got up with three balls remaining. It was the second highest chase at the venue in all T20, making a mockery of a significant toss bias in favour of the side batting first.
The star was Wihan Lubbe, who is having a bonkers campaign. He's a half-century or duck merchant with scores of 83-0-0-49 so far. It would be remiss, however, not to ponder on that flaky top order with Alex Hales failing again.
We're not enamoured with their bowlers, either. Kyle Abbott, Andile Phelukwayo and Keshav Maharaj are not getting support they need and Heat look to be at least a bowler short.
Probable XI Marshall, Hales, Lubbe, Vilas, Miller, Bopara, Phehlukwayo, Abbott, Maharaj, Jansen, Siboto
Ready to hit back
The Giants are 4-1 so far, their first defeat coming in their last outing against Paarl Rocks. They were well beaten by 31 runs but the result does not warrant an overreaction.
They come up against a strong Rocks side, who are probably second to the Giants in terms of ability and nous in the tournament, and had to counter a significant toss bias for the team batting first. Chris Morris and CJ Dala also lost their line and length slightly and that allowed Rocks to post a strong target against what otherwise was a consistent bowling display.
Beuran Hendricks replaced Nandre Burger for the contest and punters may well feel the latter's left-arm darts are more useful. They also have the option of bringing in new signing Ryan ten Doeschate.
Probable XI Roy, Breetzke, Smuts, Dunk, Kuhn, Morris, Marais, Nyaku, Burger, Dala, Tahir
Bowlers to the fore
Kingsmead is a ground with a reputation for assisting the bowlers. The scores (1-2 denote match won by team batting first or second, most recent) in the last ten read: 174-1/121-2/159-1/133-1/128-2/139-2/157-2/168-1/172-nr/157-1. More than 160 has been busted six times since November 2016 (16 games).
Giants have the edge
Durban are 2.1211/10 and Giants 1.794/5. We reckon that's about bang on what the prices should be.
If Giants can come up a little bit to around the 1.9010/11 mark in-running we suggest you fill your boots, particularly if the drift occurs in the first dig with Heat batting. We have significant worries about the home team's ability to keep things tight in the field, as witnessed when Blitz confounded all trends and data when breaching 170 in the last match on this ground. Heat are conceding an average of almost nine an over this year.
The best news is that the weather should hold. Kingsmead is notoriously wet but only a few showers are forecast so a full game is expected.
No fifty flutter
Before that match against Blitz we highlighted the difficulty for batsmen to go big. A fifty was scored in 30% of all T20 men's matches. With Sportsbook offering 7/4 about no half salute we're prepared to go in, rating it as the best value (or edge) that we can find.
For top-bat wagers, Lubbe and Heino Kuhn have been underrated for Heat and Giants respectively at 9/2 and 7/1. We have them shorter than that on the pure win rate database. Be aware of Lubbe's inconsistent nature, though.
We will also keep faith with CJ Dala for top Giants bowler honours. He's 10/3. Despite disappointing last time out his win rate is till high, dipping just below a crazy 50%. We're hoping the pitch favours his tyle instead of jolly Imran Tahir's spin.