Premier League Tips

With three wins and three losses, Cape Town Blitz are shaping up to be the team guaranteed to infuriate. They have twice hammered Jozi Stars and enjoyed a ten-run win over these opponents. But against Nelson Mandela Bay Giants and Paarl Rocks (twice) they have been squeezed out.

Against the Giants they failed to defend a whopping 186. And they couldn't chase 164 against Rocks. Perhaps they lack a little bit of quality when the gun teams come and the pressure goes up.

Certainly, that would fit with their XI. They rely heavily on pace on the ball in the field with Dale Steyn, Wahab Riaz, Vernon Philander and Sisanda Magala charging in. Mohammad Nawaz is left to find smarts and variance alongside fellow spinner Gregory Mahlokwana. It's a wonder why they didn't try to recruit a top-quality international spinner instead of Wahab, or another batter. What they did do, though, was pick up Moeen Ali, who can do both. And rarely play him. Odd.

The front five is strong but we're unsure whether Philander is a No 6 in this format. That has to be one of the most specialised roles in the game, getting teams to something huge at the death or marshalling a tight chase. Perhaps if they pick the below, they might kick on.

Possible XI De Kock, Malan, Moeen, Ackerman, Livingstone, Asif, Nawaz, Philander, Steyn, Mahlokwana, Nortje

Heat cooling off

We're beginning to lose patience with the Durban Heat's efforts in the field. Despite names like Kyle Abbott, Andile Phehlukwayo and Keshav Maharaj they are having problems keeping it tight. Of their last five defending, they have lost every single time. This is becoming an issue.

Same too is the form of Alex Hales. Hales failed again in defeat by the Giants last time out. He now has only three scores of 30 more in his last 16 T20 innings. It's a shame and one suspects if he's suffering a hangover from missing out on World Cup glory. Sportsbook go 5/6 under 21.5 runs for him.

They don't really have a ready-to-go replacement in the squad. But they could try promoting Wihan Lubbe and calling up Khaya Zondo to the middle order.

Probable XI Marshall, Hales, Lubbe, Vilas, Miller, Bopara, Phehlukwayo, Jansen, Maharaj, Abbott, Siboto

Flippping important

The scores in the last ten T20s at Newlands (1-2 denote match won by side batting first-second, most recent first) read: 163-1/183-1/133-1/150-1/152-1/134-tie/192-1/113-2/161-2/144-1/196-1. Chasing is tough, then. That bias holds up over a bigger study period (61 games) with 47% of chasers winning. With an average of just shy of 150, the team batting first shouldn't feel pressured to reach for the 180s. Around eight an over should do the trick.

Watershed game for visitors

Blitz are 1.784/5. Given the toss bias and a record which suggests they are far more comfortable posting a score, they could well be worth an interest if the price holds with the flip going their way.

If not? Well, we have to make the call on that Durban Heat bowling line-up. If they can't defend under lights at Newlands, they can't defend anywhere. You'd be nuts to take 2.226/5 before the coin toss.

Magala and Abbott catch eye

For top Blitz bowler we're going to be brave and swim against the tide. Although we have huge respect for Steyn, his massive win rate of 46% and Sportsbook's 11/4 is, clearly, value we're tempted by the coming force. Magala has a 38% win rate and gets a 7/2 quote. What we like about Magala is the fact he bowled the 18th and 20th overs against Rocks last time, increasing his chances of cheap wickets in a competitive market. For Heat, Abbott is the go-to man at Sportsbook's 10/3.