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Michael Vaughan: West Indies are justified favourites

Graeme Swann was one of England's few good performers v India

"You can normally brush off a one-day defeat and move on but losing by 90 runs is the equivalent of getting beaten by an innings in a Test match."

Dancing man Michael Vaughan believes West Indies could Waltz to success against England if Chris Gayle and Sunil Narine are on form

It was a real pasting for England against India. You worry that it will affect confidence. You can normally brush off a one-day defeat and move on but losing by 90 runs is the equivalent of getting beaten by an innings in a Test match.

The toss is crucial at Pallekele - the team batting first tends to have a huge advantage, but you have to think that if Chris Gayle and Sunil Narine perform, then West Indies win. (15:00 Update: West Indies have won the toss and will bat)

The England attack doesn't like bowling against teams like the Windies, who just tee off from the start. It will take a massive effort from the spinners, in particular, to rein them in.

I think England should go with all three spinners. Even in defeat to India, Graeme Swann only went for 17 runs off his four overs, so I'd get both Samit Patel and Danny Briggs in to try and provide some extra control.

As for the batsman, Morgan-aside, they struggle on these wickets where the ball sticks in the pitch. Someone like Joss Buttler is great against seam, but it's a different kettle of fish when there is no pace.

On to my bets and it may be worth waiting for the toss before getting involved, but West Indies at 1.9210/11 certainly looks like good value.

Regular readers won't be surprised to hear that I am sticking with Eoin Morgan for Top England Batsman, at 5.69/2. Chris Gayle is the obvious choice for the West Indies, but there is little value at 2.915/8, so I'll go for Marlon Samuels, at 6.411/2. He's got a good record against England.

Keep Dancing...

Training is still hard but I'm having fun. The Waltz is in the bag now, next up is learning the Jive. I didn't realise just how big Strictly Come Dancing was though. I can't go anywhere now, without being stopped. It does wonders for one's profile!

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27 September 2012

Twenty20 World Cup

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