Paul Krishnamurty updates the state of the match and markets following the third day's play at Wellington...
Latest Score: England 465, New Zealand 254 & 77/1
Match Odds: England 2.47/5, Draw 1.75/7, New Zealand 140.0139/1
From a cricketing perspective and in terms of momentum, Stuart Broad's six first innings wickets appear to have swung the Second Test decisively in England's favour. Fuelled by fears of a looming washout, however, the market now favours the draw.
To a large extent, betting in such circumstances boils down to whether one trusts weather forecasts. My view is that markets over-react to them. Unless there's a relentless downpour - as in Dunedin which, incidentally, the pre-match forecast failed to predict - match officials have several options to claw back most of the lost time. Moreover, cloud cover makes wickets much, much likelier.
In this case, the worst is scheduled for the final day, by which time matters may have been wholly or largely settled. New Zealand currently trail by 134 runs, with nine second innings wickets left. For example, all it would take is for some cloud cover in the morning session, resulting in say five wickets, and England would scent imminent victory.
That is how test innings tend to go, with a spate of wickets falling in quick succession as new batsmen struggle to settle while the bowlers have their tails up. Having already bowled New Zealand out cheaply on this pitch, there's no reason why England shouldn't do so again. With those reasons in mind, I'm pressing up on England.