Sunrisers Hyderabad v Rajasthan Royals: How often do Warner and Buttler cop?

Sunrisers Hyderabad v Rajasthan Royals
Friday 29 March, 14:30
Live on BT Sport

Sunrisers confident still

Sunrisers Hyderabad will probably shrug their shoulders and say 'it was one of those days' about their defeat to Kolkata Knight Riders in the opener. They ran into Andre Russell, the immovable object, who hit everything out of the park.

And, of course, that can happen in the helter-skelter T20 format.

Still, Sunrisers should be asking themselves why weren't they threatening 200 after David Warner had blitzed so efficiently. They were 118 for none in the 13th over and it should have been straightforward to put the game to bed from there. We were encouraged to see Vijay Shankar give it a biff but in light of Russell's power hitting, Sunrisers may still be weak in the late hitting department.

The runners-up last year could tweak their XI. Kane Williamson is expected to return after a niggle to lead. Mohammad Nabi might be a better option than Shakib-al-Hasan. But that's the only possible change to the bowling line-up with Bhuv Kumar, Sidd Kaul, Sandeep Sharma and Rashid Khan solid.

Royals unlucky

Rajasthan Royals can count themselves unfortunate that they don't have a win under their belt. With Jos Buttler flying they had the game in their pocket against Kings XI. And unless you've been living under a rock for the most part of the week you'll know what happened next.

Ravi Ashwin's mankading of Buttler could serve Rajasthan to rage against the injustice. They probably need some sort of kick up the pants because we're otherwise not hugely impressed by the balance of their XI. We'd like a mystery spinner and, perhaps most importantly, gun domestic players. While most franchises can call on a big Indian name or three, Rajasthan whimper Ajinkya Rahane who can hold them back.

Instead much will depend on Buttler giving them a fast start and then Ben Stokes or Steve Smith taking responsibility with the bat. Jaydev Unadkat and Jofra Archer are dangerous wicket-takers.

Slight bias for chaser

There's no toss bias at the Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium in the last three years but, on average runs per wicket, there's almost a four-run advantage in a chase. Over a bigger study period (79 matches), there's a 5% bias for the chaser but it's not something to get hung up about. The average first-innings score in that period is 158.

Hosts should defend well

As you would expect, Sunrisers are hot favourites here at [1.69]. Rajasthan are approaching [2.4]. We would expect Sunrisers to defend well here - as they always do - particularly against a Royals line-up which has struggled for wins batting second.

In-running, then, could be the best tactic for a bet. Around an average first dig score should be enough for Sunrisers, although the market is likely to disagree. Around [1.80] about the hosts is a good starting point.

The opposite could be true in a chase for the hosts. With them struggling to put their foot down there is a theory they should be taken on. But they're still winning 66% of the time in a chase.

Warner and Buttler consistent

Warner and Buttler are the Mr Reliables of the franchise leagues for top batsman honours. And it's a question of how low can you go. Warner's hit rate means he should be closer to 6/4 than the 11/5 on offer from Sportsbook about top SRH bat. Likewise Butter for Royals who has been notching at the same rate in the IPL ever since he started opening. He is 23/10 with Sportsbook. The firm go 9s about a Warner-Buttler double.

Unadkat and Rashid catch eye with ball

Value ahoy on top Rajasthan bowler with Ish Sodhi the 11/4 jolly unlikely to play. There's a 0.6% probability edge for Unadkat top Rajasthan bowler at 10/3 and that could be a bet considering Archer is bang on the right price at 11/4. Another market which catches the eye is the man of the match award. Rashid Khan has 20 gongs in 156 matches, which makes him a little shy of an 7/1 shot. Sportsbook go 8s so a wager in entirely justified. On this ground last season Rashid tied Royals in knots with one for 23. For the record, Warner have 10% and 7% win chances on career numbers.