Ed Hawkins analyses the clash from the Wankhede Staium on Sunday as the visitors must win...
"If it’s the Mumbai who trounced Chennai Super Kings twice, instead of the team that was so ponderous against Sunrisers, then those odds would seem fair"
Mumbai Indians v Kolkata Knight Riders
Sunday 5 May, 15:30
TV: live on Sky Sports
Mumbai up and down
Mumbai need the win to leapfrog Delhi Capitals into second place ahead of the play-offs. It's always good to keep this Mumbai team honest as in all the chaos of a game a day and four over a weekend, it has been missed that this lot have been infuriatingly inconsistent.
They have managed back-to-back wins twice and needed a Super Over to get past Sunrisers Hyderabad last time out. It is possible that because of their big-name players and long batting line-up they are a little too casual and certainly their performances have appeared careless.
It is their batting which causes most consternation. They have busted more than 180 twice batting first. Rohit Sharma has been a disappointment with Quinton de Kock and Hardik Pandya outscoring him. A strike rate in the 130s from Rohit is not really quick enough in the opening berth.
Mumbai up and down
Kolkata's nerveless chase against Kings XI Punjab on Friday means they are still alive regardless of the result between Royal Challengers Bangalore and Sunrisers Hyderabad. A win for Sunrisers in that game will make their task much tougher, though with run rate separating the pair if KKR pick up the two points.
They are lucky to be breathing. A five-game losing sequence should really have put paid to their chances but they have been dynamic with the bat in the last two matches, thrashing 232 against Mumbai and then knocking out Kings.
Their set-up in the chase in that match was impressive. The opening pair of Shubman Gill and Chris Lynn is easy on the eye and getting in Andre Russell as early as possible at No 4 is a move which, in truth, should have happened much earlier.
They still have problems with the ball - only Kings have conceded more - and even though Mumbai have been below par with the bat it would be a surprise if they were unable to tuck in.
Win toss, chase
Chasing is the order of the day at the Wankhede and it was a odd Rohit decided to bat first against Sunrisers last time. He got lucky that the visitors got bogged down. That sort of thinking adds to the confusion about whether this Mumbai team are focused enough. Just shy of 170 is the average batting first. The scores this year read: 162-171-187-197-170-213.
Who knows which Mumbai will turn up?
Mumbai are [1.78] and KKR [2.14]. Given their upturn in fortunes and heavy beating of Mumbai only two games ago, it is tempting to reckon that it is the visitors who are the bet.
Yet if it's the Mumbai who trounced Chennai Super Kings twice, instead of the team that was so ponderous against Sunrisers, then those odds would seem fair.
Batting first against a weak KKR bowling unit, they should comfortably bust the average and with [1.80] possibly available for 175 or more that could be the bet of the day. An inferior Sunrisers batting line-up was [2.1] for 175 or more on a better batting pitch in Bengaluru on Saturday against a similarly poor bowling unit.
De Kock has dominated for Mumbai this season so we have no truck with the 11/4 that Sportsbook offer about him top scoring, even if he made a duck in the previous meeting. Rohit is 3/1 and it's a poor price on form. Hardik always catches the eye and he has come up trumps consistently with late, important runs. He's a 13/2 chance. He top scored with an extraordinary 91 not out against KKR.
A Russell special
Andre Russell is 7/2 for top KKR bat, 5/1 for man of the match and 7/2 for most sixes (all with Sportsbook). Two out of the three copped the last time these sides met. Russell blitzed 80 off balls and hit eight sixes to take the gong. Hardik trumped him by one for the sixes win. The Indians all-rounder is 9/1 for a repeat.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l