Ed Hawkins is dismayed at the RCB odds again but uncovers top-bat and top-bowler value for those wanting a bigger hit on Saturday in Mohali...
"At the odds, Tye is too big given his hit rate and we have him down as a 3/1 chance"
Kings XI Punjab v Royal Challengers Bangalore
Saturday 13 April 15.30
TV: live on BT Sport
Gayle a doubt for Kings
Kings XI have won a game, lost a game, won a game, lost a game...and so on in this IPL. On that form they are due a success against Bangalore after going down to Mumbai Indians last time out.
It was a disappointing defeat. They had the game in their pocket, it seemed, when Mumbai were reduced to 94 for four in the 12th chasing 197. To get up from there, Mumbai needed a record run haul in franchise history in the last ten.
Before that game we said that, sooner or later, Kings' decision to pick only five bowlers was going to bite them. It did. They had to bowl out both Sam Curran and Ankit Rajpoot, who leaked 106 runs between them in eight overs.
Salvation might come in the form of an injury to Chris Gayle. It gives them an opportunity to pick all-rounder Moises Henriques or play another overseas bowling specialist in the form of Mujeeb ur Rahman or AJ Tye.
Steyn set to join RCB
Things go from bad to worse for Bangalore, who after losing six straight have now lost the services of a fast bowler who had the ability to turn things around: Nathan Coulter-Nile. The Aussie is a terrific T20 bowler but has a stiff back and will not be joining up with the squad.
In his place RCB have signed Dale Steyn, who had gone unsold at the auction. Steyn is a marketable asset rather than a title-winning pick. And that sums up this franchise perfectly. While Kolkata Knight Riders did their homework and went with the excellent Matt Kelly, the Western Australia quick, RCB have gone for man whose record suggests he won't have the impact required.
Of course they have other selection issues. Using Marcus Stoinis as an opener and pairing Washington Sundar and Pawan Negi are musts. They won't do it, though.
There are statistics which suggest the Mohali wicket is one of the truest for batting. It's not sluggish or stodgy and has a higher 'timing rating' than any other. It didn't seem that way, though, when Sunrisers laboured to 150 last time out. Previously, Mumbai posted 176 batting first. The first-innings average since 2010 is 163.
Too much respect for Bagalore
Despite the 0-6 record, the market still refuses to believe Bangalore as bad as they are. How come Kings aren't clear favourites here at no better than 1.9310/11? Bangalore are available at 2.03.
The hosts have excellent home form behind them, having won their last six. They also boast one of the best economy rates in the death overs. There is literally no chart Bangalore come close to topping.
AB fits the bill
Virat Kohli is 15/8 favourite with Betfair Sportsbook for top RCB bat but it's too skinny given the rate he wins the market. AB De Villiers is a shout, though. He should be about 2/1 but Sportsbook go 3s. For Kings, KL Rahul has been Mr Consistent and he has four half-centuries in his last five. The 23/10 is a smidge of value on hit rate. With Gayle, second jolly, likely to miss out he might have even less to beat. Mayank Agarwal, who is having a good season, could be promoted to open so the 4/1 appeals. David Miller, at 5s, could also be shunted up.
Tye a bet
Mujeeb and Tye are the top two in the betting for Kings top bowler at 11/4 and 10/3 respectively. Neither played in their last game. Mohammad Shami took honours and is 7/2 with Sportbook for a repeat. It is likely only one of Mujeeb and Tye will play here. We hope it's Tye. At the odds, he is too big given his hit rate and we have him down as a 3/1 chance. Mujeeb doesn't cop anywhere close to the regularity of an 11/4 shot.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l