IPL Winner Betting: Outsiders look excellent value to bank some profit

Ed Hawkins
07 April 2015

Faulkner is two players in one

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Ed Hawkins, who has picked the winner of the last three tournaments, casts his expert eye over this year's hopefuls and believes that following a couple of this year's outsiders could reap rewards as the competition progresses...

"In Shane Watson, Steven Smith and James Faulkner Rajasthan have three of the best overseas players available"

The Indian Premier League starts on Wednesday and its outright market once again represents a treasure trove of value for cricket punters.

A healthy bank balance looks guaranteed no matter who wins the trophy, aside from the skinny, and perennial, favourites the Chennai Super Kings at 3.7511/4. Otherwise big prices leap from the coupon. Even second-jollies Bangalore are 4.94/1.

Then there's Kolkata Knight Riders, last year's winners and champions in two of the last three years, at 9.417/2, the cosmopolitan Mumbai Indians at 11.010/1, Hyderabad Sunrisers at 13.012/1 who have David Warner and Shikhar Dhawan (our top-bat selection), a revamped Delhi Daredevils are 14.013/1, and Rajasthan, who have a habit of squeezing everything from an unfashionable squad, are 18.017/1.

As always, the challenge is recognising a team which has the ability to meld a dispirit bunch of players together for a chaotic seven-week schedule and, crucially, whether it has the right types of players for success.

We believe those to be a fast starter in the opener berth, middle-order class, a lower-order hitter, a devastating death bowler and solid spin options. As many of those bases as possible should be covered by homegrown players to make the most of the limit on four overseas players.

What you are likely to find is that most teams don't quite manage it. They might be one player short in a particular area.

Champions League winners Chennai, though, have every base covered. The problem with that is that they pretty much always have had, and yet still haven't won the title in the last four seasons. We won't be backing Chennai at meagre odds. A full team-by-team guide is here.

It is hard not to argue therefore that the rest are as strong, or as weak, as each other. Kings XI Punjab, for example, probably only lack a lower-order blaster. Rajasthan, the rags, also appear to be only one player short in the form of extra middle-order solidity.

We could go on. Delhi do not convince with their selection of openers but are otherwise spot on, Sunrisers Hyderabad have a weak-looking middle- to lower order, Kolkata might find themselves a batsman short and Bangalore could do with a classy spin option.

So how the hell do you find a winner? It is simple really. You look at the odds. When sides are evenly matched and games can turn on one over of brilliance from an overseas x-factor player, we can confidently pick our bet thanks to the gulf in odds.

This year it is Rajasthan. Like Kolkata in 2014, who were also the outsiders, it is pretty much unfathomable why they are so big.

In Shane Watson, Steven Smith and James Faulkner they have three of the best overseas players available. That is the core of Australia's World Cup-winning squad capable of winning games from nowhere.

Watson will skipper the side and will be tasked with bringing together the Royals as a tight unit. It is something they have rarely struggled with and they consistently 'overachieve'. Smith is the hottest batting property in the world while Faulkner is pure box office.

With him you get two players in one. He is regarded as one of the finest finishers in the world and is an expert death bowler. We expect him to get the Royals home in close situations with bat or ball.

At the top of the order Ajinkya Rahane must give them fast starts alongside the capable Karun Nair. Sanju Samson, the wicketkeeper, is expected to bat at No 4 and although not a 'name' his performances in T20 have been impressive.

Faulkner is expected to bat at No 6, followed by Stuart Binny, the India all-rounder, at No 7. That might be a little high for Faulkner and it would be wonderful if they had another Indian player to bat at four down. But then they wouldn't be 18.017/1 would they?

At No 8 they have options. Chris Morris, Tim Southee and Juan Theron will vie for the slot followed by Rajat Bhatia, the vastly experienced all-rounder, and Pravin Tambe. Tambe, at 42, may not look like a spinner capable of doing the job but he has been IPL's Mr Consistent for years. Dhawal Kulkarni, the India pacer, is at No 11.

We also like Delhi at big odds. They are possibly better balanced than the Royals. It's just that we have a worry about the likelihood of Quinton de Kock and Mayank Agarwal getting them off to quick starts.

It might not matter. With Yuvraj Singh, JP Duminy and Angelo Mathews at Nos 3, 4 and 5 respectively they look strong. They have homegrown hitters lower down the order, great spin options in the form of Amit Mishra and Imran Tahir. Mohammad Shami, Nathan Coulter-Nile and Zaheer Khan are an enticing pace attack.

They may have to dispense with De Kock at the top of the order to play Tahir and Coulter-Nile in the same side but that's our gamble. Much rests on the shoulders of Yuvraj, who needs a good tournament to restore his reputation. In that regard, the selection as Dimuny as skipper could be the masterstroke. He's a man who can bring 'difficult' characters into the fold.

Thanks to the big numbers on Rajasthan and Delhi we have the luxury of laying off as an option. So keep a check on this site throughout the tournament in case the decision is made to get out for a profit.

Recommended Bets
Back-to-lay Rajasthan at 18.017/1
Back-to-lay Delhi at 14.013/1

Ed Hawkins P/L

2015: +£39.90
2014: +315.10 (ROI 27%)
2013: +250.80 (ROI 25%)
To £10 level stakes, based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice
Follow Ed on Twitter @cricketbetting