Sunrisers Hyderabad v Chennai Super Kings: Back unders at relatively low-scoring ground

Sunrisers Hyderabad cricketer David Warner
David Warner has already scored 400 runs

CSK and Sunrisers met in last year's final but the former is enjoying a much better 2019 campaign. Paul Krishnamurty predicts a low-scoring affair...

"Backing unders here has generally paid off in the past and this could be an ideal opportunity...Chennai have five bowlers with an economy below seven, while Sunrisers attack has plenty of pedigree."

Lay 160 Or More 1st Innings Runs 5u @ 1.68/13
Lay 150 Or More 1st Innings Runs 5u @ 1.330/100

Sunrisers Hyderabad v Chennai Super Kings
Wednesday, 11:30 GMT
Live on BT Sport and Star Gold (Sky Channel 729)

Hosts yet to reach potential this term

The 2016 champions are very much IPL heavyweights, reaching the last three play-offs but, so far at least, this highly talented squad are not reaching their potential. They currently sit third from bottom, two points off the play-off zone, with a game in hand.

We have seen how devastating their openers can be, twice propelling their total beyond 200. David Warner and Jonny Bairstow have already amassed over 700 runs but there has been scant back-up, and the bowlers have been less effective than usual.

Rashid Khan has been economical, with sides predictably reluctant to take him one, but averages less than one wicket per game. Nevertheless, expect him to star as the tournament develops and pitches take more turn.

Chennai have all but qualified

The Chennai machine moves on. The defending champions have already earned 14 points - which has, on occasion, proved enough to qualify - with six matches left. An all-important top-two spot looks nailed on.

Their latest victory, however, was achieved in a different fashion to usual. Death bowling has been a problem and, missing Dwayne Bravo, they looked set to concede a daunting 180 against Kolkata, before restricting them to a less than a run per ball off the last five overs.

Back unders for runs and sixes

The Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium is known for producing scores at each end of the spectrum. This season's four matches have seen 231 and 198 (chased down), and 190 has been breached five times in the last 19 matches.

More broadly, however, this is a relatively low scoring ground. 11 of those 19 first innings were less than 160 and almost a third below 140.

Indeed, backing unders here has generally paid off in the past and this could be an ideal opportunity. All the bigger scores were made earlier in the season, suggesting the pitch gets slower and takes more turn in the later games.

The Sixes Line - Under 11.5 won on 11 of those 19 matches - looks too high. Chennai have five bowlers with an economy below seven, while Sunrisers attack has plenty of pedigree when it comes to restricting totals.

That line implies the par score will be rated around 170 pre-innings. My advice is to lay both the 150 and 160 plus bands at around 1.68/13 and 1.330/100.

Classy Sunrisers due a big performance

There appears to marginal bias towards the team batting first, who have won 11 of the last 19 at Hyderabad. As always, though, check for dew reports after the toss before playing.

Understandably given that they've won seven from eight this season, Chennai are favourites at 1.875/6. I'm less inclined to back them against this opposition, though. Sunrisers are a class act waiting to come good and 2.1411/10 with home advantage will be preferred IF they win the toss and bat first.

Openers dominate Sunrisers runscorer list

Predictably and unarguably, David Warner and Jonny Bairstow are red-hot in the Sunrisers top bat market at 15/8 and 11/4 respectively. For a bigger priced alternative, the versatile Wriddhiman Saha makes some appeal at 7/1.

Raina's odds are too short for a non-opener

Having returned to form last time, Suresh Raina is now the CSK favourite at 13/5 - too short for a non-opener. Faf Du Plessis at 11/4 is, for me, the one to beat but MS Dhoni is eyecatching at 6/1 given his superb form this season.

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

2019 IPL Stats:

+6.5 units

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