Royal Challengers Bangalore v Rajasthan Royals: Visitors rate good value to maintain winning run

Cricketer Ajinkya Rahane
Ajinkya Rahane is Rajasthan's top runscorer

Tuesday's match is the last chance for the bottom two sides. Paul Krishnamurty says Rajasthan are good value to keep their hopes alive..

"Kohli's men are always more fashionable than Royals but there's scant supportive evidence in this year or any other."

Back Rajasthan Royals 4u @ 2.26/5

Royal Challengers Bangalore v Rajasthan Royals
Tuesday, 15:30 GMT
Live on BT Sport and Star Gold (Sky Channel 729)

RCB rooted at the foot of the table

For the third season in a row, RCB have been bitterly disappointing and nothing less than a win today will do if they are to avoid finishing bottom. Unbelievable for a side including Virat Kohli and AB De Villiers - both of whom have delivered over 400 runs.

Rather their weakness is, as ever, with the ball. Besides the honorable exception of leg-spinner Yuzvendra Chahal nobody has reached double-figures for wickets and of the regular bowlers, only Moeen Ali has an economy below 8.0.

Royals coping well without Buttler

It would require a miraculous set of results given their dire run-rate but Rajasthan can still mathematically make the play-offs. They've now won two in a row, chasing on both occasions. A notable achievement considering they are having to do without their talisman Jos Buttler.

Skipper Ajinkya Rahane has now overhauled the Englishman as top runscorer with 391. Fellow opener Liam Livingstone showed his ability to fill the void at the top of the order with a quickfire 44 last time, while Sanju Samson is back in top form.

Par is around 180

Apart from a couple of seasons when the pitch was particularly slow, the M Chinnaswamy Stadium generally produces run-fests. This has been the scene of dozens of 200 plus and record breaking totals over the years, especially when Chris Gayle was at RCB.

Of 12 matches here in the past two seasons, five first innings were in excess of 200 and only two were below 160. The Sportsbook run-line of 180.5 looks absolutely spot on regarding a par total.

There was no evidence of pitch deterioration last time so I'll be backing overs on the higher run line bands. 190 or more should be available at around 2.915/8.

RCB opposed at odds-on without Moeen

It will come as no surprise to anyone who has followed IPL betting over the years to find that RCB are odds-on favourites at 1.824/5, despite being bottom of the table. Kohli's men are always more fashionable than Royals but there's scant supportive evidence in this year or any other.

Betting odds-on here makes even less sense given the significance of the toss. The chasing side has won seven of the last 12 here and had won three on the spin prior to a daunting 202 being defended last time.

Most matches at the Chinnaswamy come down to which set of bowlers can better contain scoring, or a special innings. Now Moeen Ali has flown home, RCB have lost their most economical bowler and star finisher. Royals are under-rated at odds of 2.26/5 for a third straight win and can keep their faint hopes alive.

Hetmyer could star for RCB

Kohli is predictably favourite to top-score for RCB at 15/8, ahead of De Villiers at 11/4. They invariably take plenty of beating but if you're looking for bigger odds, brilliant Windies youngster Shimron Hetmyer is 6/1.

Samson could be lethal at this ground

Rahane is 5/2 favourite for Rajasthan ahead of Livingstone at 3/1. The one I like here though is Sanju Samson at 7/2. Back from injury, he returned to the superb form of early season last time. Expect him to make hay at this boundary-friendly ground.

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

2019 IPL Stats:

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