As the play-off battle heats up, Sunrisers urgently need to win away to Rajasthan. Paul Krishnamurty is confident they will deliver...
"Sunrisers need to win and are not too short at 1.784/5. A close defeat to the points leaders last time followed two resounding victories. They are a far superior outfit to Royals."
Rajasthan Royals v Sunrisers Hyderabad
Saturday, 15:30 GMT
Live on BT Sport and Star Gold (Sky Channel 729)
Weakened Royals still fighting
It has been a poor season but Royals are still fighting. Beating fellow strugglers KKR lifted them off the bottom on points difference. Previously they must have been devastated to lose after posting a big score.
Besides the lack of points, though, the problems are clearly visible. Losing talisman Jos Buttler - who has flown home for the birth of his child - is a hammer blow.
Overseas replacement Ashton Turner has failed to score a run in three attempts. Steve Smith and Ben Stokes have both struggled to score quickly enough. With the ball, only Jofra Archer and Shreyas Gopal have performed to expectations.
Key match for Sunrisers
Sunrisers Hyderabad's season could well turn on today's match. They are still very much in this title race, tied for fourth with a game in hand on Kings XI.
Their last result was a disappointing away defeat to Chennai, ending a good run. I wouldn't over-react to that. Ultimately they only fell to a superb Shane Watson innings.
Of course, they have been heavily reliant on their openers contributing more than 1000 runs and losing Jonny Bairstow now is a blow. Don't under-estimate their batting depth though. Martin Guptill is a strong replacement and Shakib Al Hasan, Deepak Hooda and Yusuf Pathan are precisely the back-up required for the death overs slog.
Latest big Jaipur total was an outlier
Last time at Jaipur, 191 was the highest score in 13 matches since Rajasthan returned to IPL last season, yet didn't prove to be enough. Nevertheless, that is well above par on this big ground.
Of those 13 matches, nine first innings finished in between 150 and 170 - making it one of the most consistent, and lower-scoring, grounds in IPL. Par in my view is around 165.
Sunrisers expected to land the odds
Delhi's victory last time was the fifth straight win for the chasing side at Jaipur. Over the last 13 games, however, the scoreline is merely 7-6 so don't over-react to the toss result.
Sunrisers need to win and are not too short at 1.784/5. A close defeat to the points leaders last time followed two resounding victories. They are a far superior outfit to Royals and I'm backing them to demonstrate it.
In Buttler's absence, Ajinkya Rahane is favourite for Royals top bat at 12/5 ahead of Sanju Samson at 3/1. They set a decent standard but the value must be Stuart Binny at 55/1. He is more than capable with the bat and has often been promoted throughout his IPL career.
With no Bairstow to worry about, it would be very easy to make a case for David Warner as a 2/1 banker to top the Sunrisers list. However he can't win every time and 11/1 about Shakib Al Hasan stands out as a value alternative, given he was listed at number five last time.
Despite no luck in a couple of previous attempts, I remain bullish about the Most Sixes market, on the grounds that it is wide-open when scores are low. None of the last 13 matches at Jaipur yielded more than a dozen maximums, so this could easily be won with two or three.
Ideally I think this suits a middle-order finisher. Shakib Al Hasan and Yusuf Pathan particularly stand out in Sunrisers' middle-order as up for this job, at 14/1 and 16/1 respectively.
Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty
2019 IPL Stats:
Back Sunrisers Hyderabad 6u @ 1.784/5
Back Shakib Al Hasan to hit Most Sixes 0.5u @ 14/1
Back Yusuf Pathan to hit Most Sixes 0.5u @ 16/1