Kolkata Knight Riders v Kings XI Punjab: Improved visitors good value to land the upset

Kolkata Knight Riders v Kings XI Punjab
Wednesday, 14:30 GMT
Live on BT Sport and Star Gold (Sky Channel 729)

KKR may be weaker than usual

Thanks to an amazing finish - 49 off 19 balls - from Andre Russell, the three-time champions got their campaign off to a dream start against fellow heavyweights Sunrisers Hyderabad. They're now second favourites for the title and therefore projected to reach a seventh play-off in nine years.

I'm sceptical. KKR sides always include match-winners - Russell, Lynn, Narine (with both bat and ball), Kuldeep Yadav - but this injury-hit squad looks lighter than usual. The batting in particular looks too reliant on explosive, hit and miss, types.

On slow pitches taking plenty of turn, Narine, Kuldeep and Piwush Chawla will be formidable. However in the opener at their home ground, the spin trio were expensive and took just one wicket.

This looks the best Kings XI side in years

The shine was completely taken off Punjab's opening win by skipper Ashwin's deeply controversial run out of Jos Buttler. However assuming there is no after-effect, it felt like a significant turning point for these perennial strugglers.

Kings XI have only twice ever reached the play-offs, finishing bottom or second-bottom in three of last four seasons. The current squad, though, looks formidable.

Chris Gayle looks determined to finish his career in style and opening partner Rahul could be one of the stars of the tournament. New signings Pooran and Sam Curran very much strengthen the middle-order. Mohammed Shami, Andrew Tye, Ashwin and Mujeer Ur Rahman comprise a high-class bowling unit. Don't underestimate them.

170 looks a minimum target at Eden Gardens

Saturday's match showed high scores are still very much the order of the day at Eden Gardens. Seventeen matches since the start of 2017 produced 11 first-innings totals of 170 plus including two beyond 200, with nothing worse than 131.

Par is probably around 175. That could soon become an easy target if either set of openers take off but it will probably be reflected by the odds. Even 200 plus would interest me if available at [6.0] or bigger.

Punjab batsmen could be hard to contain

It is no surprise to see KKR trading at [1.79] for this home match, against a usually inferior side. For the reasons explained above, 2019 may be different. Kings XI could be the season's big improvers.

On the evidence of Saturday's match at Eden Gardens, it is doubtful that KKR's spinners will be effective. Without their control during the middle overs, Punjab could be hard to contain.

Reliable Karthik good value to top score

Dinesh Karthik and Chris Lynn dominated the KKR runscorer list last year, scoring 498 and 491 respectively, but the former is available to back at twice the odds. Along with Robin Uthappa, Karthik will have a pivotal role holding the batting together and is expected to regularly offer good value at around 11/2.

Gayle favourite to top-score again

Gayle heads the Punjab list at 5/2, followed by Rahul at 11/4. I suspect they will win this market between them more often that not, but its a guessing game regarding which will fare better on any given day. At 7/1, Sarfaraz Khan is a better-priced, capable alternative.

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty