Ed Hawkins previews a must-win clash for Mumbai on Sunday - and they could find it tricky on a tacky wicket at the Kotla
"Pant, who has 620 runs in the series, is worth following at 3/1. He should be favourite"
Delhi Daredevils v Mumbai Indians
Sunday May 20 11:30
TV: live on Sky Sports
Delhi stunned Chennai
Anyone remember the programme 'How Do They Do That?' Des Lynam presented it once. Well, perhaps they should bring it back. First episode could be all about Delhi Daredevils beating Chennai Super Kings on Friday.
That's bottom-of-the-table Delhi, who couldn't defend Fort Knox, strangling hitherto batting powerhouses Chennai, in a small chase. How did they do that? Beats me. Delhi had been consistently dreadful in hitting line and length yet somehow they managed it.
It's all a bit late in the day, of course. Trent Boult and Amit Mishra should have perhaps been bowling with such accuracy about four weeks ago.
Oddly, their batting didn't fire. It can be dangerous with Shreyas Iyer and Rish Pant impressive. It was also interesting to note how Delhi have ignored their overseas 'stars' for some time. Chris Morris, Jason Roy, Colin Munro, Liam Plunkett and Dan Christian are forgotten men.
Mumbai have to win
Mumbai have got to win if they are to once again come back from the dead to qualify. Along with Royal Challengers Bangalore they are the form team at the moment - it's four wins from the last five.
Last time out they downed Kings XI Punjab by three runs. They posted 186 after a wobble in the middle overs. Then they held their nerve as KL Rahul, one of the players of the tournament, set about their bowling. If he had been given some support, Mumbai would have lost.
Still, they have an impressive balance which befits their title as defending champions. At this point we would normally hail the decision to axe Kieron Pollard as the catalyst for their revival but his return, and subsequent 50 from 23 balls, was somewhat match-winning.
Unlike Chennai, who are all bat and no balls, and Sunrisers Hyderabad who are the other way round, Mumbai are effective at both disciplines. That gives us a warm, fuzzy feeling.
Wicket slowing down?
The Kotla has looked pretty good for run-getting this season. So it was a surprise to see the pitch playing the opposite on Friday. The three previous scores to Delhi's 162 against the Super Kings were healthy - 181, 187 and 196. The squeeze from Delhi was largely by spin. Sandeep Samichane, of Nepal, had an economy rate of 5.25 and Mishra just five.
Delhi are [2.68] and Mumbai [1.56]. That price about Mumbai is one of the shortest pre-toss prices we have seen all tournament. Chennai were not even that skinny to beat Delhi.
Hardly surprising then that we swerve them on the basis of value regardless of whether Delhi have suddenly found the formula to keep economy rate down. Although, it has to be said, we would be very concerned about getting with Mumbai at the odds on a turning pitch. Delhi have an army of spinners and Mumbai a lone sniper.
Does that make Delhi worthwhile then? Possibly. We're not falling over ourselves to bet here but certainly a trade on Delhi into jolly status might give an interest.
Where we might have an edge is the sixes market. There is a belief that Mumbai hit more of them with Betfair Sportsbook going 8/11 in a match bet. Delhi are 7/5. Pant, Iyer and Prithvi Shaw have whacked 64 between them. And although Mumbai have greater power lower down we don't think the gulf in odds is fair.
Pant underrated again
There is some reasonable value on Delhi top runscorer. That's because Munro and Roy take up some of the book at 5/2 and 7/2 respectively with Betfair Sportsbook. We don't think they will play so surely Pant, who has 620 runs in the series, is worth following at 3/1. He should be favourite. Shaw, who has looked impressive so far, is not a bad shout, either at 7/2 given he opens and is gung-ho. Roy did hit an unbeaten 97 in a fine win for Delhi over Mumbai early doors so it wouldn't be hugely surprising if he found himself in the XI.
Three men with form for Mumbai
Suryakumar Yadav, Evin Lewis and Ishan Kishan hit 53, 48 and 44 in rapid time in that meeting. They are 11/4, 11/4 and 9/2 respectively for top Mumbai bat. Rohit Sharma is 7/2 and Pollard is 12/1.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l