Hawk Eye on the IPL Final: Du Plessis has top-bat edge

Faf Du Plessis
Du Plessis is value

Ed Hawkins bemaons the bookies getting the prices right...apart from one in the top CSK bat market for Sunday's final...

"Faf also has the added bonus of runs on this Hyderabad ground - topping against the Sunrisers earlier in the tournament. That's a couple of planets coming into line right there"

Avoid Rohit wager

It's difficult to have come across a worse, consistent favourite for top runscorer honours in IPL 2019 than Rohit Sharma. He has two wins in 14 outings this term, a record that suggests those who take the odds of 23/10 about him winning against Chennai Super Kings need a stern talking to.

Rohit, despite Mumbai's breezy run to the final, has been a disappointment by his high standards. He has outscored team-mates consistently in the international arena in T20. And he is the top runscorer in the world in the last two years in ODI. Here he has been put in the shade by opening partner Quinton de Kock, Suryakumar Yadav and Hardik Pandya. The latter, in the middle-order, has 386 runs, four fewer than Rohit.

A glace at Rohit's strike rate suggests something is up. A mark of 129 is too slow these days for a franchise blitzer. De Kock has gone only a couple of ticks quicker, in fairness, but with four top-bat wins in 14 it is clear Rohit is being priced on reputation instead of record. Unfortunately, Sportsbook are bang on with their 11/4 quote about De Kock.

Faf about

Faf Du Plessis is the right jolly at 5/2 for top Chennai bat. He has four wins (with one tie) in his 11 appearances and his fifty in the final eliminator against Delhi Capitals suggests he has found form at the right time.

On that formguide, Du Plessis should be shorter. He also has the added bonus of runs on this Hyderabad ground - topping against the Sunrisers earlier in the tournament. That's a couple of planets coming into line right there.

Shane Watson, who has the worst average for an opener ever to play the full quota of games, has two wins in 16 with one tie. The 7/2 is not big enough. MS Dhoni is a point shorter than he should be at 5s but it is arguable that when the pressure is on few can match his temperament and it's a bet.

Don't Bum rush

There's another bad jolly on the top bowler markets. Jasprit Bumrah. It's only one win for him this season so best to avail yourselves of Sportsbook's 5/2.

To be fair to Bumrah, there's not much value anywhere. Despite Rahul Chahar's excellent record, and Lasith Malinga's too, both are hardly banging down the door for how often they actually win this market at 10/3 and 7/2 respectively. Chahar is a smidge of value as he should be about 3/1. He could find the wicket suits him, too.

Chennai's top bowler market is hard to decipher. Incredibly, in their 16 games only nine have produced an out-and-out top bowler winner. The rest are shared honours. Deepak Chahar has five ties with one win. He is 4/1.

Imran Tahir, who needs two wickets for overall top bowler, has three wins in 16 and three ties. The 9/4 does nothing for us, then.

Hawk-Eye P-L

2019 - points p-l: +18.73 (43 points staked)
2018 - points p-l: +9.86 (89 points staked)
2017 - points p-l: +5.29 (26 points staked)

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