West Indies v India
Thursday June 6, 15:00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Well, how about that? The hosts, who have consistently chosen to field weak teams, have taken the Champions Trophy finalists to the last-game in a five-match series. Okay the weather helped but it's pretty unexpected.
We were on the Windies last time out for the win which brought it back to 2-1. It was an extraordinary success considering they defended just 189. And they did so with India infinitesimal on the market at 101 for three.
Jason Holder took five wickets but Kesrick Williams, Ashley Nurse and Dev Bishoo all went for fewer than 3.1 an over. In that regard the innings mirrored their own. They were well set at 121 for three before fading badly to a squeeze.
Maybe India were guilty of complacency. At a position of impregnability, they took their eye off the ball, often a peccadillo of the superstar cricketer from that part of the world. Whatever it was, few punters will trust them again at such short odds.
If India can't chase 189 on a turning deck against some pretty average bowlers then there is no hope for some teams. MS Dhoni, once the master of the chase, produced a stinker of an innings - his slowest ever - to put them deeper into the mire.
Yuvraj Singh was dropped for Dinesh Karthik and one would expect the latter to retain his place even though he failed. Bhuv Kumar could come back in for Mohammad Shami though.
There have been six ODI at Sabina Park in the last five years. The scores (most recent first, 1-2 denote match won by side batting first or second) read: 202-2/348-1/229-2/208-2/315-1/190-2.
We always had an inkling that West Indies would pinch one win in the series. And we are chuffed that we managed to call it right on a pitch which, clearly, was a great leveller.
To get with them again, we would need a surface which would do the same. Alas we can't be 100% sure that Sabina is it. Besides, West Indies haven't won back-to-back games against the same top seven team for five years.
India are [1.25] and West Indies [4.9]. If you must play this market the best advice is to trade West Indies and look to book profits on both sides.
Chances will be enhanced for West Indies if they chase because of a toss bias. Five of the last seven have been won by the team batting second.
Top West Indies runscorer
Jason Mohammed, who we were keen on for his top-bat effort in game three, looks big again at 6/1. That is unquestionably a value selection. Shai Hope is a fair favourite at 11/4, however. And at the risk of repeating ourselves - we have mentioned this most matches - Holder might also come into the value equation at 7/1.
Top India runscorer
Ajinkya Rahane is buckling down well after being given a chance in the absence of Rohit Sharma. He is the top rusncorer in the series with 297. Shikhar Dhawan is next best at 157. Rahane is 7/2 and Dhwan 3/1. Virat Kohli, who looks in decent touch despite the absence of an imposing innings, is 12/5.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017.
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