In the last 12 months Ravi Ashwin and Ravi Jadeja have taken 110 wickets between them for India in 11 Tests. So at 3/1 and 4/1 they could be well supported with Sportsbook for top first-innings bowler. But how relevant are those numbers considering eight of the matches were at home?
Not relevant enough to convince us to bet, that's for sure. Cape Town is not likely to replicate India conditions. We have to be quite stringent with our filters here because just checking 'away records' for Indian bowlers recently doesn't help, either. India have been twice to Sri Lanka.
If we discount Asia completely, rather surprisingly Ashwin still comes out on top with 17 wickets in the last four Tests. He has a strike rate of 46. The bowler with the best strike rate, however, is Bhuv Kumar with 41. He would be more likely to find conditions to his liking at 4/1.
It's a bit of a guessing game with India, though, because they have had no warm-up matches. Jadeja is also a doubt because of illness. There is some clarity with the home team, though.
For South Africa, Kagiso Rabada could well be a shoo-in for honours. In the last two years at home the pacer has a phenomenal strike rate of a wicket every 25 balls. That's ten balls faster than Morne Morkel and 17 fewer than Vernon Philander.
Considering those numbers it seems fair to assume that Rabada should be favourite. He's not. Sportsbook can't separate the three of them and they all get a 16/5 quote.
Statistically, Rabada should be about a 5/2 chance considering the number of times he wins this market. But fret not, Morkel is in real terms a 4/1 poke and Philander is more like 11/2.
If we look at the trio's records in the first-innings of a Test at home (again in the last two years), Rabada comes out on top in terms of wickets taken and strike rate. He has 32 victims with one every 28 balls. Morkel's numbers are 12 and 36 and Philander 15 and 30.
In all conditions in the last two years in first-innings Rabada is again the main man. He has 55 wickets with a strike rate of 39. Morkel has 31 with 47 and Philander 35 at 44.
So we should be confident we are betting Rabada at a price bigger than he should be. It could well be that he has an off day or that Morkel, Philander or someone else play out of their skin but on the balance of numbers it is a good wager.
Not that it is particularly surprising Rabada is a good man to follow. He is a terrific bowler who can seam and swing the ball at pace or get bounce. He is probably the only bowler on show who can do all three.
The ICC rate him as the second best bowler in the world behind James Anderson, who is still clinging to top spot despite England's Ashes woes. In 2018 we would expect Rabada to usurp Anderson.
Dale Steyn, once the world No 1, is available for South Africa but we don't expect him to play. Steyn has had persistent injury problems over the last few years and South Africa coach Ottis Gibson does not want to rush him back so early in the series.
Steyn has played only twice in the last two years at home so his strike rate of a wicket every 25 balls can not be considered as important as Rabada's, who has played ten times.
He gets a 10/3 quote, which would be considered value if we could be sure the old Steyn would turn up. He's the one that would cop 40 per cent of the time. But that bowler of speed, dip and bend is probably long gone.