Hawk Eye on New Zealand v India Second ODI: Will Kohli's barren run end?

Ed Hawkins
07 February 2020

Kohli is on a poor top-bat run

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Ed Hawkins wonders why the India great has struggled to land top-bat winners ahead of game two in Auckland on Saturday...

"Perhaps logic dictates that as New Zealand were destroyed for 149 against South Africa there in March 2017 we’re in for a run fest"

Kohli's bizarre run

Virat Kohli perfectly illustrates the complexities of finding a top-bat winner. A wizard at the crease as his bat resembles a wand, there is no finer batsman in the world regardless of the format. He can dot it all. Go long, find gaps, play spin, take on pace. The only thing he can't do, at the moment at least, is win a top India runscorer wager.

Kohli has one win in his last 15 T20 and ODI appearances. It's an extraordinary record. And all the more so because during that sequence he has passed fifty five times. There is absolutely nothing wrong with his form. He is seeing it perfectly. It's just others are seeing it better.

In ODI, normally it is Rohit Sharma. But with Rohit, the top runscorer in the World Cup by one run from David Warner, injured and unavailable it is hardly ludicrous to reckon that Kohli would take over the mantle in his absence. After all, Rohit wins 36% of the time over the last couple of years and Kohli 28%. They dominate for India in the format.

At some stage, Kohli will top score again. Could it be in Auckland? Maybe, although his two appearances in 50-overs at the venue have resulted in a meagre 44 runs.

What is important is the price. If he is the wrong price we bet him. If he isn't we will have to accept that he might win without us. Unfortunately, he goes alone with Sportsbook giving him a 30% chance and a quote of 23/10.

As you can see from the numbers below, there is nowt wrong with another wager on Ross Taylor for honours. Cut from 3/1 into 11/4 there is a 3.4% edge in our favour. Do be aware, though, that his record at the ground is poor in the last five years.

Top NZ bat wins/matches
Taylor 13/42
Guptill 6/37
Nichols 1/15
Latham 2/38
Neesham 1/22
Grandhomme 1/30

Top NZ bowler wins/matches
Sodhi 3 2t/13
Grandhomme t/29
Santner 5t/33
Neesham 2 t/21
t=tie

Top India bat wins/matches
Kohli 18/64
Jadav 2/55
Jadeja 1/23
Rahul 2/22

Top India bat bowler wins/matches
Bumrah 8 9t/49
Kuldeep 13 13t/58
Chahal 7 4t/45
Shami 6 2t/26
Jadav 1 2t/50
Jadeja 3/31

Could batting be tricky?

In the last 13 day-night ODI at Eden Park which have produced results, backing a first-innings fifty and a first-innings century would have won eight times and twice respectively.

The reason for the (unlucky for some) study number? The sequence begins with New Zealand versus India in 2009.

Eden Park is renowned for producing bonkers matches. That game was no different with India being razed for 149 with no fifty scored. The two also played out a high-scoring tie in 2014.

Four times in the study period, a team batting first has failed to bust 157. More than 280 has been busted the same number of times. We're not quite sure what to get in Auckland.

Perhaps logic dictates that as New Zealand were destroyed for 149 against South Africa there in March 2017 we're in for a run fest.

Still, Sportsbook's odds for not fifty and no century to be scored in the first innings are of note. They go 9/1 and 8/11. Taking the latter is a big play. The former is nibble territory. The 4/6 about India scoring most fours could also be another price for big wallets.

Average fours per game last 12 months
NZ 19.7 v Ind 25.7
Last two years
NZ 18.9 v Ind 23.8