New Zealand v India Second ODI Betting: Weak bowling means chase is on

Ed Hawkins
07 February 2020

Kuldeep could be replaced by Chahal

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Ed Hawkins previews game two from Eden Park early on Saturday and expects a tight affair...

"The best advise is to wait until half-time. India chasing a score which has them in the region of 1.758/11 could be a nice play"

New Zealand v India
Saturday 8 February, 02:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Kiwis rejvenated

New Zealand answered critics, who were wholly justified by the way following calamitous performances in the T20s, with a superb chase in Hamilton to take a 1-0 lead. Set 347 they were nerveless for the most part. They could even allow for a mini wobble, as is their wont these days.

Ross Taylor bossed it for them. He top scored for the seventh time in 17 at Seddon Park with a classic century. He and Tom Latham did much of the hard work with a crucial third-wicket partnership. This negated the three wickets for 21 runs they lost when closing in. There was good news for Henry Nicholls. His half-century had set the tone after Martin Guptill and Tom Blundell had departed.

Unsurprisingly, they were leaky in the field. With no Trent Boult, Lockie Ferguson or Matt Henry, restricting India was always going to be tough. Colin de Grandhomme was the pick.

Possible XI Guptill, Nicholls, Blundell, Taylor, Latham, Neesham, de Grandhomme, Santner, Southee, Sodhi, Bennett

India's poor pick

India unbalance themselves. If they're going to pick Kedar Jadav at No 6, then he has to play as an all-rounder rather than a specialist batsman. Otherwise they're left with five bowlers only with no room for error.

Quite why Jadav wasn't asked to bowl is a mystery considering India were unable to contain the Kiwis. They may as well pick Manish Pandey or Rish Pant. If they want an all-rounder, Shivam Dube should come in.

It's muddled thinking particularly when you consider that India are without Rohit Sharma and Shikhar Dhawan, the first choice opening combination. Yuz Chahal might come in for Kuldeep Yadav.

Possible XI Shaw, Agarwal, Kohli, Iyer, Rahul, Jadav, Jadeja, Thakur, Kuldeep, Shami, Bumrah

Flurry of runs and wickets?

New Zealand have won five of their last six at Eden Park, a venue which has produced some extraordinary games in the last few years. The first innings scores in the last five years under lights (1-2 denote match won by side batting first or second, most recent first) read: 149-2/307-1/281-2/287-2/222-1/151-2. Despite the low scores, the run rate stands at 5.4 so we're in for a flurry of wickets and runs.

The most important stat is the bias for the chaser. In the last 26 results under lights, 17 have been won by the team fielding first. The toss is key, then, particularly as both sides are likely to have issues keeping things tight. India are nerveless chasers and it is also New Zealand's strongest suit with ten wins in their last 15.

Listen to Ed Hawkins and Kiwi cricket writer Andrew Alderson ask: why do Kiwis choke? This week's episode of Cricket...Only Bettor

Advantage chaser

India are 1.594/7 favourites with the Kiwis 2.6813/8. You would need your head read if bet before the toss in this one. As it stands, India have to rate as a very poor bet indeed.

But even if the flip goes their way we won't bet them pre-toss. They won't drift until New Zealand (if) manage to cut loose. Although we suspect they are capable of a good score because India's bowling attack is losing its way, we do have to factor in the pitch characteristics.

The best advise is to wait until half-time. India chasing a score which has them in the region of 1.758/11 could be a nice play. No rain is forecast, by the way.

Taylor's bad run

Taylor comes in to 11/4 from 3/1 with Sportsbook for top Kiwi runscorer. Guptill is 16/5 and Latham 9/2. Nicholls gets a 4/1 quote. Like Seddon Park, where Taylor had an extraordinary record, Eden Park is also notable. Albeit for different reasons. He has an extraordinarily bad record with in the last five years with 55 runs in four matches. Guptill tops the charts with 282 runs in six with the same filter.

Shreyas Iyer, who insisted there would be more tons to come after his maiden in Hamilton, is 9/2 for top India bat. Virat Kohli gets a 23/10 quote with openers Shaw and Agarwal at 9/2 and 7/2 respectively.