Hawk Eye - Ireland v India: Chahal v Yadav a thrilling battle

Yuz Chahal
Chahal should be 2/1
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Ed Hawkins unearths three potential wagers for punters looking for an edge in the one-sided contest on Friday...

"Both Chahal and Kuldeep have a superior hit rate to Bhuv Kumar and Jasprit Bumrah"

Look to lay Ireland runs

Ireland have never scored more than 135 batting first or second in their 11 matches against established nations (India, New Zealand, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, West Indies, Australia and England). In game one they could manage only 132.

There is nothing surprising that Ireland have found runs hard to come by. The gulf between them and the big boys is huge. It looks particularly big when they come up against a team with India's variations from the wrist.

Spinners Kuldeep Yadav and Yuz Chahal took four and three wickets respectively. It must have been a disconcerting experience for the Irish, who rarely see such sleight of hand, finger and wrist. These two bamboozle even the best in the world.

It is therefore likely that Ireland are going to struggle to notch their highest score against a Test nation. So there could well be an opportunity to lay their runs at decent prices in-running. More than 140 or 145 could be a decent pick at, possibly, around [2.1].

Their cumulative run rate for all matches against the aforementioned teams is 5.9. India have only twice conceded more than 140 against the smaller nations - 170 against Zimbabwe in Harare in 2016 and 145 against the same opposition on the same ground a year previously.

Kuldeep and Chahal represent chunky odds

On the subject of Yadav and Chahal, Betfair Sportsbook have boosted each man's odds, perhaps taking pity on punters desperately trying to find a wager in an uncompetitive heat.

Kuldeep is 3/1 from 11/4 to be top India wicket-taker and Chahal is 14/1 from 12/1 for the man of the match award.

The price about Kuldeep is worth analysing. Statistically, Kuldeep is a 2/1 chance. So that's a chunky edge in our favour. The problem with that price is that Chahal is also a 2/1 chance statistically yet he has been given a 7/2 quote. Chunkier.

Both men have a superior hit rate to Bhuv Kumar and Jasprit Bumrah, India's excellent new-ball pairing.
Chahal averages 1.68 wickets per game in the last 12 months and Kuldeep 1.77. The latter at 12.3 has a superior strike rate by nine balls. These are pretty tight margins and it may well be worth siding with Chahal.

Watch out for Rahul

In our match preview we have recommended a bet on Virat Kohli to be top India runscorer because we thought he would be promoted up the order. This should happen. He looks likely to be bat at No 3 with Rohit Sharma having a rest.

That also means we have to point out the price on KL Rahul to top score, as he should replace Rohit as opener. Rahul is a fantastic hitter and the 3/1 that he top scores is tempting.

It is still out by a point on his career numbers although as a fledgling international it is perhaps splitting hairs. Rahul is twice the player he was when he made his T20 debut 15 matches ago and had a sensational Indian Premier League.

Dismantling average attacks then should set him up well for this one. He has a strike rate of 146 in T20 internationals and he may well have his unbeaten 110 off 51 balls against West indies at Lauderhill, a similar 'festival' ground, on his mind.

Hawk-Eye P-L

2018 - points p-l: -6.21 (44 points staked)
2017 - points p-l: +5.29 (26 points staked)

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