India v New Zealand
Saturday 8 October 04.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
India
India have claimed the series already with a comprehensive dismantling of the Kiwis in Kolkata. They are now ranked as the No 1 side in the world.
It was an impressive performance because conditions should have suited the tourists as much as the hosts. Nor was there the raging turn of other recent home triumphs, something for which India have been criticised.
But they proved they can win in all conditions and will be confident of a whitewash. They will have to do it without Bhuv Kumar who has back strain. He has been replaced in the squad by Shardul Thakar although Amit Mishra is expected to come into the XI. Gautam Gambhir could replace Shikhar Dhawan as opener.
New Zealand
Under grey skies with moisture in the air, New Zealand would have fancied a Test win in Kolkata. They looked capable but they couldn't quite push on from a position of strength.
They had a golden chance in the first-innings having reduced India to 231 for seven but they allowed them to recover to 316. That was a terrible blow to their confidence and they never recovered.
Kane Williamson missed the match with a viral infection but he has been declared fit and should come straight back in. Henry Nicholls could make way but Martin Guptill is having a stinker of a tour and his time must surely be up. Ish Sodhi could replace Matt Henry to give New Zealand a three-pronged spin attack.
First-innings runs
The Holkar Stadium in Indore has been redeveloped and has never hosted a Test before. So there will plenty of focus on the pitch. In the last two years there have been eight first-class matches played there. The scores (1/2 denotes match won by side batting first or second, otherwise a draw) read: 279-1/240-2/452/514/371-1/303/296-2/114-2.
In the most recent game, between Madhya Pradesh and Andhra in December, spin was king. Slow left-arm Ankit Sharma took 13 wickets to destroy Andhra.
In the previous match. 18 of the 20 first two match-innings wickets fell to spinners. Indeed, Madhya Pradesh used only two bowlers in the second of those, Saxena and Ankit taking five each. Only three of the 37 wickets to fall went to pace.
Match odds
India are 1.635/8, New Zealand are 8.07/1 and the draw is 3.412/5. With spin such a huge factor here the toss, obviously, is important.
If India win it they will surely bat first and the game will be as good as won. But if the Kiwis get first go, could they threaten India's superiority?
Jeetan Patel and Mitchell Santner, and Sodhi if picked, would argue they have enough ability to win New Zealand the game in a fourth-innings chase.
And we'd agree with them. But what we're essentially asking is whether New Zealand are 8.07/1 to bat first and post the hosts a total of more than 200? We think not, particularly with Williamson back.
The tourists are capable of showing good discipline in the field but they must find a way to score off India's spinners. If they do that, they're in with a shout.
Top India runscorer
Gambhir and Wriddi Saha both have first-class tons on this ground, which should give them a warm, fuzzy feeling. Gambir is around 5.59/2 and Saha 12.011/1. A back of Saha looks out of the question in the first dig because the pitch might not be worn enough to spark a top-order collapse.
Top New Zealand runscorer
Before the first Test we said Williamson didn't have much to beat and nothing has changed that view. He is expected to go off at around 3.412/5. Tom Latham, who has knuckled down well, is 4.3100/30. BJ Watling is possibly overpriced by a point at 9.08/1.
Recommended Bet
Back side batting first