Hawk Eye - India v New Zealand Third ODI: It's Williamson's time to shine

Williamson is underrated
Williamson is underrated
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Ed Hawkins's stats column takes a look at the top New Zealand runscorer market for the decider in Pune and comes up with a strong recommendation...

"It is harsh to call it a rick because you can’t really get a jolly much shorter on this market without being accused of being a skinflint but with Williamson copping 34% of the time the edge is clear"

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K Williamson top New Zealand runscorer 11/4 Sportsbook

Sometimes in cricket, strange things happen. Things which one cannot fathom or things which even an inordinate amount of number crunching wouldn't reveal. Sri Lanka's two-zip Test series win recently against Pakistan in the UAE is one of those. How Dawid Malan was picked for an Ashes tour is another.

So far, India's ODI series against New Zealand is pretty predictable. India have hit back after a sluggish start and the finale in Kanpur on Sunday promises to be a competitive and potentially thrilling affair.

But there has been something which has caused punters alarm. Those that follow individual players carefully, notching each run and top-bat effort. Something which would have made them uneasy as it has been far from the norm. The form of Kane Wiliamson. Williamson has nine runs in two innings. He hasn't managed even a boundary yet.

What is going on? It feels as if the world is about to end. That matrix has broken. Williamson, naturally, is probably suffering a minor blip in form. Every batter does at some stage in a season, right? Not this guy.

The 'panic' at Williamson's poor trot bears testament to the man's extraordinary consistency. It is extremely rare that he puts together back-to-back single digit scores in ODI. The last time it happened was, wait for it, four years ago. And even then that was spread between England's visit to New Zealand in February and the return tour in May.

In same series he has only twice consecutively failed - against West Indies in Basseterre in 2012 and in the very first two games of his ODI career when he recorded two ducks in a tri-series against India and Sri Lanka.

This incredible record gives us comfort because we want to bet him for top New Zealand runscorer at Green Park. The nagging doubt which was putting us off was the thought that Williamson might just be in a funk. He might not be seeing the ball so well or feeling it on the blade. And we always say that one of the cornerstones for a top-bet wager is the player actually being in good touch.

Well, considering Williamson's record proves that he is hardly ever out of it we can perhaps rest easy. We only bet when the price is mathematically wrong in this corner of betting.betfair and in this regard Williamson is a value bet each and every time he goes to the crease in ODI.

Sportsbook have chalked him up at 11/4 for honours. It is harsh to call it a rick because you can't really get a jolly much shorter on this market without being accused of being a skinflint but with Williamson copping 34% of the time the edge is clear. That's roughly a 2/1 shot.

Exchange punters may get superior value. Anything above [2.9] is worth snaffling as far as Williamson is concerned.

What about his rivals? Well, we discussed Ross Taylor in depth here for game one. Indeed, we made a rather decent case for him being the bet but he didn't pull it off even with a ninety in the bag. And his odds are too short - 4/1 with Sportsbook - considering how many times he wins.

Colin Munro, the opener, was also dissected for game two. And you can read here while he would do well to bust more than 25. He's not top runscorer material at odds of 5/1 at the moment.

Martin Guptill, Munro's opening partner, is a stellar player. Don't forget that he top scored in the last World Cup. And he is a better bet than odds of 7/2 suggest, landing a winner 27% of the time.

But in Asia he has a dodgy record and that is enough to further bolster our confidence that Williamson is worth a wager here.


Recommended Bet
K Williamson top New Zealand runscorer 11/4 Sportsbook


Hawk-Eye P-L

Points staked: 13
Points p-l: +7.88
To 1pt level stakes

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