Ed Hawkins previews the decider from Kanpur on Sunday with the series delicately poised at 1-1 - and he says the tourists are value to pull off a shock...
"We are a little worried that defending at this venue could be tricky, perhaps because of dew, but we may still look to caveat the bet with the toss in New Zealand's favour"
New Zealand batting first [3.7] (1pt)
India v New Zealand
Sunday October 29 08.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Normal service was resumed for India in game two in Pune. They bowled first, Bhuv Kumar and Jasprit Bumrah were deadly and the hosts knocked off the runs with relative ease.
They did learn from their defeat at the start of the series, though. We expressed concerned about Kedar Jadav's position at No 4. So down he dropped for this one to at least No 7. Dinesh Karthik batted at No 4 instead.
Still, it could be argued that Hardik Pandya and MS Dhoni are both a sport too high at Nos 5 and 6 respectively. Could they squeeze Manish Pandey or Ajinkya Rahane in? Possibly at the expense of one of the spinners, Axar Patel or Yuz Chahal. Axar looks the more vulnerable after Chahal outbowled him in Pune.
The Kiwis may be regretting an opportunity to put the series to bed with a game to spare. Batting first in Pune they had the chance to go big on what was a decent batting wicket.
But the game was up by the 16th over with the holy trinity - Martin Guptill, Kane Williamson and Ross Taylor - all back in the hutch with only 58 runs on the board. Indeed, the form of Guptill and Williamson needs to improve dramatically if they are not to be beaten.
There is nothing wrong with their balance. They bat deep with Henry Nicholls, Colin de Grandhomme and Mitchell Santner guiding them to respectability with cameos. And the pace attack is strong with Trent Boult, Tim Southee and, importantly, Adam Milne in decent nick.
There have been 14 ODI played at Green Park, Kanpur. But only two of those are since 2010 when digs of 263 and 303 were recorded by West Indies and South Africa respectively. This is, however, the first day-night ODI. In the last four IPL matches, each were won by the chaser.
The market has lost faith in the Kiwis, chalking India up at their shortest price yet at [1.37]. New Zealand are [3.7].
We still think the best chance for New Zealand is if they bat first, despite their failure last time out. India's record when batting first at home is superb with eight wins from their last nine. That's hard to ignore.
We are a little worried that defending at this venue could be tricky, perhaps because of dew, but we may still look to caveat the bet with the toss in New Zealand's favour.
However, there doesn't really seem to be a gulf between the sides as big as the odds suggest. New Zealand are hard working and, as we have said, have good options all the way down and in the field.
This is a home ground for Karthik, although in his last four appearances in IPL he has hardly set the world alight when in the colours of Gujarat Lions. Rohit Sharma has good vibes here. He whacked 150 off 133 balls against South Africa in 2015 - but India still lost. In the previous game (in 2013) it was Shikhar Dhawan who notched a ton. Rohit is 3/1 and Dhawan is 10/3 with Sportsbook. Virat Kohli is 23/10.
We are waiting for some big performances from Guptill and Williamson. Guptill has 43 in two innings and Williamson just nine. The former is 7/2 and the latter 11/4. Taylor, who looked in good nick in game one, is 4/1 and the centurion in that game, Tom Latham, gets at 11/2 quote.
New Zealand batting first [3.7] (1pt)
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l