India v New Zealand Third ODI Betting: Close encounter expected

Ed Hawkins
22 October 2016

Dhoni has a ton in Mohali last time

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Ed Hawkins assseses game three from Mohali on Sunday and expects the touring team to show more improvement after winning in Delhi

"This looks like a good chasing wicket and 280 first up would appear to be the minimum. New Zealand are a fair bet to give it a good go"

Recommended Bet
Trade New Zealand from 3.02/1 to 1.804/5

India v New Zealand
Sunday October 23 08.00
TV: live on Sky Sports

India

Fortress Kotla was sacked in game two as India's soft underbelly was exposed by a New Zealand side who found their mojo. This is the last game before the hosts will field their best team.

Ravi Ashwin, Ravi Jadeja and Mohammad Shami are still resting. But there are also concerns over the middle order - as we discussed previously. MS Dhoni, Kedar Jadav and Axar Patel were unable to guide India to a modest total of 243 with a toss bias in their favour.

Dhoni scored 39 but his strike rate of 60 was far too slow. Patel was only a little quicker. Jadav actually played well but he was sandwiched by mediocrity.

Suresh Raina could return from illness to add ballast. With the ball they may look to give Dhawal Kulkarni a game.

New Zealand

New Zealand will be delighted to be level at 1-1 after a horror showing in game one and an inconsistent effort in game two. They are perhaps fortunate to be all square having almost squandered superiority in Delhi.

At 204 for three with nine overs left, they looked set for a big one. But they fell away alarmingly and at halfway they looked beat.

Then their bowlers came to the fore. At 183 for eight the Kiwis fought back brilliantly and looked to have the game in their hands. But they dropped it with Hardik Pandya and Umesh Yadav taking India to the brink. Tim Southee won it in the last over but it should never have been so close.

First-innings runs

There have been six ODI in Mohali since 2010. The first-innings scores (1-2 denoting game won by side batting first or second) are: 303-2/257-2/298-2/260-1/275-1/351-1. We are expecting runs here, unlike in Delhi.

Match odds

India are 1.491/2 and New Zealand 3.02/1. These are about the same prices as before the first match. So mistrust in New Zealand remains.

It is understandable. They were not competitive in game one and then stumbled their way to victory at the Kotla. We can decide that was a lucky win. Or we can decide it is an example of them finding their feet.

We'll plump with the latter because the weight of evidence suggests the Kiwis are a strong ODI side. And certainly as strong as a depleted India team.

We'd like to see less reliance on Kane Williamson and Tom Latham. The former's century in Delhi was the match-winner. Ross Taylor's poor form continued and he may as well be dropped.

This looks like a good chasing wicket and 280 first up would appear to be the minimum. New Zealand are a fair bet to give it a good go. At the least they will trade as jollies.

One statistic against the tourists is India's home record. In two-team series they have lost consecutive matches only twice in 11 years. But then India had never lost an ODI in Delhi.

Top India runscorer

Three years ago - India's last appearance on the ground - Dhoni whacked an unbeaten 139 in defeat by Australia. Jadav has a century on the ground in domestic cricket. Dhoni should be available around 9.08/1 and Jadav from 10.09/1 upwards. Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma will be jollies sub 4.03/1.

Top New Zealand runscorer

Williamson and Latham will go off around 3.7511/4 and 5.04/1 respectively. Martin Guptill, who is not having a great tour, will also be around 5.04/1. There could be a spot of value lower down with Anton Devcich playing as a late-order hitter. He is too good for No 8 but we'd want high teens for a price. It could even be that Devich slots in higher up if Taylor is dropped.

Recommended Bet
Trade New Zealand from 3.02/1 to 1.804/5

Ed Hawkins P-L

2016: +198.82
2015: +£380.50
2014: +315.10
2013: +250.80
To £10 level stakes (unless otherwise stated), based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate.
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