India v England Third ODI Betting: There's six appeal at Eden Gardens

Sam Billings should come in for Alex Hales
Sam Billings should come in for Alex Hales

Ed Hawkins previews the final rubber of the series on Sunday, and points out a crucial toss bias at Kolkata and a sixes trend...

"England must win the toss and bat. In the last seven matches at Eden only two teams have chased."

Recommended Bet
2pts under 14.5 sixes at 10/11 Sportsbook

India v England
Sunday 22 January, 08:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports


India
India's victory in Pune was another come-from-behind affair. At 24 for three - and with Virat Kohli in the hutch - they looked under pressure. Not a bit of it. Old stagers Yuvraj Singh and MS Dhoni blitzed England.

With the series won, India could be tempted to make some changes. Ajinkya Rahane could come in for KL Rahul at the top of the order considering the opener has had a poor run. Shikhar Dhawan has not been too hot, either.

There's even a possibility that Ravi Ashwin, whose workload has been heavy, sits this one out. Pacer Umesh Yahav will also come into contention.


England
Opener Alex Hales has returned home after suffering a fractured hand. It could be some time before we see him in an England ODI shirt again. He has suffered lean runs in his ODI career and his stock is low following a poor return here and skipping Bangladesh.

The main beneficiary of his absence could be Sam Billings, who showed good touch in the Big Bash and warm-ups. He is a more natural opener than Jonny Bairstow. Billings deputised in Bangladesh and made a career-best 62.

England's bowling attack has been smashed to all parts and there is little they can do to stop the haemorrhage in terms of a change of personnel. One switch could be for Liam Dawson to come in as an extra spinner for Liam Plunkett who has been fodder.


First-innings runs
There have been eight ODI in the last ten years at Eden Gardens. The scores (most recent first, 1-2 denote game won by side batting first or second): read: 404-1/250-1/271-1/308-1/306-2/272-1/315-2. That's an average of 304.


Match odds
India are 1.564/7 and England 2.747/4. Considering England's bowlers have been hammered, twice throwing away winning positions, it is surprising that they are not a little bigger. These odds haven't really changed since game one.

We have suffered a crisis of confidence about England because of their profligacy. They should be value as a chaser but we are running out of patience with this bowling line-up. It doesn't help that there is a toss bias at Eden Gardens.

England must win the toss and bat. In the last seven matches at Eden only two teams have chased. And in day-night matches overall, only five have been successful in 16.

Unfortunately, that does not play to their 'strengths'. England are so weak in the field we would still much rather they chase. It would be no surprise if India busted the trend.

Is there any evidence that India relax with a series won? Not really. They have won their last two dead rubbers. The third was a defeat by England, however.

Top India runscorer
Kohli has one century and one fifty in four innings at EG, giving him an average of 44. He is 2/1 with Sportsbook for honours, 6/1 for man of the match and 7/2 for top runscorer in the match. That last price is probably the best way to get with Kohli these days, particularly if India chase because his record is incredible.


Top England runscorer
Billings gets a 4/1 quote from the Sportsbook. We were hoping for more but it is possible we could get 6.05/1 on the Exchange with some folk unaware that he should bat in the opening slot.


Total match sixes
Rohit Sharma smote nine in a double ton against Sri Lanka on this ground last time. And there were 16 in the match. So that's why Sportsbook go over 14.5 at 4/5. It's a wrong price, however, and we have to take it on. Here is the sixes tally in the last ten: 16/4/7/8/10/6/6/1/9/3. Go under at 10/11. There's a bit of a risk considering England are leaky but the numbers don't lie.


Recommended Bet
2pts under 14.5 sixes at 10/11 Sportsbook

Ed Hawkins P-L

2017: +1.22pts
2016: +12.5pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts

Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (1pt-5) introduced for 2017.
*Follow Ed on Twitter @cricketbetting

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