India v England Second Test Betting: Trading the draw the best approach

Ed Hawkins
16 November 2016

Moeen Ali proved his class with the bat in the First Test

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After the stalemate in what was a fascinating First Test, India and England are straight back into action in the early hours of Thursday, UK time. Ed Hawkins believes the batting power of both teams means the draw will trade a lot shorter than 4/1...

"There is a suspicion that the folks at Visakhapatnam need as many ticket sales as possible so it could be road-like early doors. It could trade odds-on and with both sides solid with the bat, that's our top-rated wager."

India v England
Thursday, 04:00 GMT
Live on Sky Sports 2

India

India may well be feeling a little put out after the draw in the opening game. Winning had become a habit at home - their previous five - with sides crumbling like a value pack of digestives in molten tea.

They had to work. And not being used to put the sweats in, they struggled for rhythm. It is an art form to grind down sides in conditions such as these, and it is one India might have lost.

The hosts remain, of course, a very good side. But perhaps they are not as good as they thought. Of chief concern will be whether their pace attack is potent enough, even if their spinners went for 521 runs for just nine wickets.

Amit Mishra will likely be the sacrificial lamb. Hardik Pandya, a medium-pacer all-rounder, could come in. Ishant Sharma's pace and bounce may be preferred to Umesh Yadav's skidders. Opener KL Rahul is expected to replace Gautam Gambhir.

England

It only took England one innings to dispel the notion that they were a 5-0 hiding waiting to happen. Alastair Cook's men proved that, given the opportunity to bat first on a good wicket, they can knuckle down and build an advantage.

Cook may be feeling a little hard done by that his team didn't win. They gave India a scare in Rajkot as the hosts lost six wickets relatively cheaply. But in truth an unlikely success never really looked on because there just wasn't enough in the pitch - this is a key pointer about a spin attack which is admirable but lacks stardust.

There were plenty of positives, however. Haseeb Hameed's assured debut suggests England have found Cook's opening partner at about the, oh I don't know, millionth attempt. It was also a boost to see England going hard to win a game when they could have been forgiven for batting on and on.

Chris Woakes is a doubt with a niggle so James Anderson, fit-again but undercooked, or Steven Finn will come in.

Match odds

India are 1.75/7, England are 4.216/5 and the draw is 5.24/1. These are a healthy and intriguing set of numbers with a potential for good profits on all three.

The decisive factor will be the toss. We don't believe England can win in India without a wearing fifth day pitch on their side. We also don't believe India are value unless they bat first.

There is no evidence - yet - that India can adapt quickly enough. On the last two occasions they have lost the toss at home (it is a statistical quirk that the opposition kept calling incorrectly), they have failed to win. In short, we need to see more flexibility with the ball before we bet pre-toss.

And when we do, we'll be quite happy to trust them. It would just be foolish to gamble on it with a 'seeing is believing' chance almost certain to crop up this series.

The draw is a great trade option. There is a suspicion that the folks at Visakhapatnam need as many ticket sales as possible so it could be road-like early doors. It could trade odds-on and with both sides solid with the bat, that's our top-rated wager.

First-innings runs

There has never been a Test played at Visakhapatnam so first-class records are our only guide. The last five first-innings scores read: 195-150-522-437-393. There's not a huge amount there for us to go on. We know there has been some indifferent bounce for pacers and a little help for spinners but the groundsman has already said this will be a "neutral" pitch. The belief is that it will not be a raging turner.

Top India 1st Inns Bat

Virat Kohli has two centuries on this ground in ODI so that is something you can hang your hat on if the 3.814/5 appeals. Chet Pujara at 4.77/2, Murali Vijay at 5.49/2 and Ajinkya Rahane at 6.411/2 don't have the same profile as Kohli but there is no evidence he's the more talented in this format.

Top England 1st Inns Bat

Hameed grabbed the headlines in the after match and will be popular at 6.86/1. But the centuries for Cook, Joe Root, Moeen Ali and Stokes are hugely positive for England. Root and Cook head the betting at 4.03/1 and 4.47/2 respectively. Stokes is 8.07/1 but Ali's 8.615/2 is the standout price as he is finally getting the chance to show that he is, first and foremost, a batsman.

Recommended Bet
Back-to-lay the draw from 5.24/1 to 1.910/11