India v England First T20 Betting: Back the chaser in Kanpur

Ed Hawkins
25 January 2017

Raina returns for India

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Ed Hawkins previews the first of three matches and expects bat to dominate ball in Kanpur on Thursday

"Wait for the toss and then side with the chaser. These two are well-matched for such a strategy"

Recommended Bet
2pts back side batting second

India v England
11.00 Thursday 26 January
TV: live on Sky Sports

India

India have decided to rest Ravi Ashwin and Ravi Jadeja. Fair enough considering the heavy workload that the pair have to undertake.

Otherwise this India team has a retro feel. Suresh Raina, Yuvraj Singh and MS Dhoni are expected to bat from Nos 3-5. Ashish Nehra, the pacer who just doesn't seem to grow old, is also picked. Who will come back next? Viru Shewag?

Amit Mishra will be on spin duties while Bhuv Kumar and Jasprit Bumrah will battle for the final pacer slot. Parveez Rasool and Hardik Pandya are on all-rounder duty. Virat Kohli will open with either KL Rahul or Mandeep Singh.

England

England have received a boost with the news that Joe Root has recovered from the niggle which kept him out of the final ODI. David Willey, however, is not fit having suffered a shoulder injury in the same game.

Still, the inclusion of left-arm quick Tymal Mills is exciting. He hit speeds of 93mph in the Big Bash and his exocets could trouble India. He will take the new ball with Liam Plunkett and Chris Jordan. Jordan is one of the top performers in T20s last year through his various franchises.

Sam Billings will open with Jason Roy. England bat down to No 9 with Jordan. But Adil Rashid is being tipped to sit on the bench. That could be a mistake.

First-innings runs

There has not been much limited-overs cricket played at the Modi Stadium, Kanpur. Just two T20 matches all together, although they were in the IPL last year. They recorded scores of 172 and 124. There have been no List A matches since January last year but the scorecards suggest bat should dominate ball. The ground, which is small, has a reputation for being a batsman's paradise.

Match odds

India are rated as the No. 2 side in the world in this format. England are way down at No 5. But one of these teams made the T20 World Cup final last year in Kolkata. And it wasn't India.

Okay, so England lost a final they should have won with their eyes closed but that effort might be enough to tempt punters into thinking they are value at 2.166/5. India are 1.855/6.

And England are the value - but only if they chase. They are even more destructive in this format as they showed in the World Cup when they destroyed tough units like South Africa and New Zealand.

India are not too shabby in the chase, either. This is largely down to Kohli's record under scoreboard pressure. The man has ice in his veins and if he gets in, India just don't lose.

Wait for the toss and then side with the chaser. These two are well-matched for such a strategy.

Top India runscorer

Raina scored two 50s in two appearances at the venue for Gujarat Lions in last year's IPL. He is 11/2 with Sportsbook. Kohli is 23/10. Kohli is the top runscorer in T20 over the last two years. He is 9/2 to be top match runscorer and the same price to be man of the match.

Top England runscorer

Roy gets top billing here at 11/4 after an impressive run of form in the ODI. But don't discount opening partner Billings at 4/1. Root and Jos Buttler are separated by only five runs in terms of most runs scored in the last two years. Root is 3/1 and Buttler 6/1. The latter looks value if only Buttler had some form coming into the match.

Recommended Bet
2pts back side batting second

Ed Hawkins P-L

2017: +3.22pts
2016: +12.5pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (1pt-5) introduced for 2017.
*Follow Ed on Twitter @cricketbetting