Ed Hawkins previews the decider from Hyderabad and says the toss will provide punters with the greatest pointer...
"We don’t like the side batting first. As we said before game two, Australia could only be considered the bet if they chased. And, given the odds, it has to be the same view on India"
Australia if they chase at 2.54 (1pt)
India v Australia
Friday October 12 14.30
TV: live on Sky Sports
Defeat by Australia in Guwahati ended a seven-game winning streak against Australia in T20. And it was only the fifth time they had lost against their rivals in 15.
It was a pretty comprehensive beating, which makes you wonder whether India were guilty of complacency. They were razed to 27 for four by Jason Behrendorff and there was no way back.
Changes could be afoot then. Rohit Sharma looks vulnerable having scored 19 runs in two innings. KL Rahul stands by. India may also look to move on Manish Pandey for Dinesh Karthik.
We don't expect the bowling line-up to change. An attack of Bhuv Kumar, Jasprit Bumrah, Hardik Pandya, Kuldeep Yadav and Yuz Chahal is strong.
Behrendorff's four-wicket blitz stole the headlines but there were other performances which would have buoyed Australia. It was no one-man demolition show.
Nathan Coulter-Nile, Adam Zampa and Marcus Stoinis were all miserly, giving Australia confidence that this is an attack to be trusted. AJ Tye was a bit expensive but he will surely come good given his talent for T20.
It was also a bonus that they didn't need to rely on their big shows - Aaron Finch and David Warner - for the runs. There could have been some concern when the pair fell cheaply at 13 for two but Moises Henriques and Travis Head got them home without further alarm.
This is the first T20 international played at Hyderabad but there has been plenty of IPL action. The first-innings scores from last season (1-2 denote match won by side batting first or second, most recent first) read: 129-1/138-2/148-1/209-1/191-1/159-1/135-2/207-1. Previous to that campaign backing the chaser was always the way to go but that trend took a hit.
India are [1.64] with Australia [2.54]. Those prices have budged only slightly in the wake of Australia's series-levelling win. That's fair enough because despite the scoreline the status quo remains.
We don't like the side batting first. As we said before game two, Australia could only be considered the bet if they chased. And, given the odds, it has to be the same view on India.
Remember, in the last four years India have chased six times at home and they have won five. Overall at home it's eight wins from 11 when fielding first. Australia have lost nine times from their last 14 batting first.
This is a home ground for Shikhar Dhawan. The Sunrisers Hyderabad player could do with some crease time, having failed once, been frustrated by a low Australia total and missing the ODI series. He is [4.3]. Virat Kohli is jolly at [3.5] and statistically should be shorter so he is a good wager. Hardik top scored last time but the [5.1] does not appeal. Instead the 14/1 on Sportsbook is the place to go if you fancy the hard-hitting all-rounder.
This is also a home game for Warner and Henriques as they are both Sunrisers players. Warner (ten runs so far) is certainly due a score with two failures so far. There is a school of thought that familiar surroundings - not to mention a sound knowledge of how the pitch plays - will spark him into life. Warner is 3/1 with Sportsbook, Henriques 13/2 and Finch 11/4.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l