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India v Australia Second T20 Betting: Australia's only chance is to chase

Finch top scored in Ranchi
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Ed Hawkins previews game two from Gujarat on Tuesday and says India, who lead 1-0, look unstoppable in a chase

"In the last four years India have chased six times at home and they have won five. Overall on their home soil it’s eight wins from 11 when fielding first"

Recommended Bet
Australia if they chase at [2.6] (0.5pts)

India v Australia
Tuesday October 10, 14:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports


India

India would have learned little from match one, the nine-wicket success in Ranchi. It was so easy that at times it must have felt like a warm-up game.

Australia struggled horribly on the sort of slow, low surface on which India can sleepwalk to a win. And then the rain came, reducing the chase to a nominal 48. It's as if the contest hasn't actually started.

There was more success for new spin options Yuz Chahal and Kuldeep Yadav. The pair took three wickets between them and their combined eight overs went for a miserly 39 runs. Jasprit Bumrah and Bhuv Kumar also reinforced their reputation as the best pace pair in limited-overs.


Australia

Australia were not helped by the withdrawal of Steve Smith, the skipper, due to a shoulder injury before Ranchi. He has now been ruled out of the tour.

Smith flew home two days ago to be replaced by Marcus Stoinis. Hardly surprising. The Ashes is on the horizon and Australia don't want to take any risks. Still, it exposes an attitude that we were wary of from the start - that this series is just a nuisance. They can't wait to get home.

David Warner will lead while Glen Maxwell has been promoted to No 3. Their balance still looks pretty good, although Tim Paine is no No 7. That doesn't mean he's too high it's just that he's not a death overs slogger.


First-innings runs

The Barsapara Stadium is new to the international arena with the Assam Cricket Association having moved from the old Nehru Stadium.


Match odds

India are [1.62] with Australia [2.6]. These are roughly the odds you would expect with India having been dominant throughout the tour, winning five from six.

The toss is going to have to go Australia's way for us to consider getting with them. In short, we really don't want to be against India in a chase. It is their strongest suit in the format.

In the last four years they have chased six times at home and they have won five. Overall on their home soil it's eight wins from 11 when fielding first. As for Australia, they are poor at defending, losing nine times from their last 14 over the same study period.

Those numbers do provide an edge, of sorts. India should shorten to [1.4] on the strength of those if Australia bat first. They won't and are probably likely to go off at around [1.55]. If that's your bag then jump in.

Australia are only worthy of betting therefore if they chase. The [2.6] is worth a small interest if you have to bet but it's far from average wager size territory.


Top India runscorer

Virat Kohli copped last time in what must be one of his easiest innings ever to take honours. Kohli is [2.62] jolly for a repeat. Openers Rohit Sharma and Shikhar Dhawan are both [3.15]. MS Dhoni appeals at 17/2 with Sportsbook where there is more give in the middle- to lower-order prices. Hardik Pandya might be worth a shout at 9/1 for a late blitz.


Top Australia runscorer

Warner and Aaron Finch, who top scored in Ranchi, head affairs here at [2.6] and [2.9] respectively. Maxwell's promotion cuts his price to [4.3]. Again, there is better value on Sportsbook for the rest. Moises Henriques and Marcus Stoinis catch the eye, both at 6/1.


Recommended Bet
Australia if they chase at [2.6] (0.5pts)

Ed Hawkins P-L

2017: +26.7pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l

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