Hawk Eye on India v Australia Fourth ODI: Warner to the fore

Ed Hawkins
27 September 2017

Warner could be about to cop

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Ed Hawkins takes a look at the stats and trends to uncover the value for game four between these two in Bangalore on Thursday...

"What might entice bettors to go with Warner this time, instead of some erroneous belief that he will be desperate for a ‘bang’ performance is that he is yet to top score on Australia’s tour of India"

Recommended Bet
D Warner top Australia runscorer 3.65

David Warner will play his 100th ODI against India in Bangalore on Thursday. And no doubt there will be people backing him for man of the match or top Australia runscorer because of the milestone.

The rationale will be similar to the reasons folks back a jockey, say, on his last ride before retirement. That he will be desperate to produce a 'bang' performance. Or put another way, he will be trying that bit more.

Will Warner be trying more than in other game tomorrow then? Probably not. So does that mean he is value or not - 3.65 on the exchange for honours and 8/1 for the gong on Sportsbook on the respective markets?

The dull, slightly irritating answer, of course, is that they are two different answers because we need to crunch two different sets of numbers.

What we do know about Warner when it comes to copping as top Australia bat in ODI is that he is one of the most reliable wagers in the world. Not quite as reliable in IPL where he goes off at around a 50 per cent or chance, give or take a few ticks.

In his career, Warner has top scored 30 per cent of the time. This means that he is, statistically, a 3.33 shot. So it is fair to reckon that you are getting a good bet with 3.65 up for grabs. It is also fair to say that some punters might want a bit more 'give' in a 'wrong' price.

What might entice bettors to go with Warner this time, instead of some erroneous belief that he will be desperate for a 'bang' performance is that he is yet to top score on Australia's tour of India. Indeed, he hasn't really come close. With no fifty so far he is having a disappointing tour.

The conspiracy theorists may say this is because in line with new ICC regulations he has had to reduce the size of his bat - the thickness of the edge cannot be more than 40 mm and the thickness of the bat must not exceed 67 mm - according to new ICC regulations.

However, he has been using the 'smaller' bat since the Test tour of Bangladesh where he scored two centuries so it probably hasn't made that big a difference.

Is he overdue for honours? No. He hasn't top scored for four matches but prior to those four he would have won you money three times and was also joint-top scorer. In that regard it is not a must-have bet, save for the odds being slightly out.

As for man of the match, Warner has a 12 per cent hit rate in those 99 games. Sportsbook go 8/1 so there's 0.74 ticks swing in our favour.

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D Warner top Australia runscorer 3.65

India's six appeal

There are battles within a battle. The sixes match bet always interest us because, often, teams are priced at 5/6 the pair, as Sportsbook do with this one. Fair? Well, India have won twice in this market, the series scores being: 7/5, 1/5, 8/7.

The numbers below suggest that India should be marginal jollies so there are far worse bets than betting the hosts to outside Australia in Bangalore.

Average sixes
India 5.6 last 12 months
India 5 last 2 years
India 6 at home last 2 years

Australia 5.4 per match last 12 months
Australia 4.4 last 2 years
Australia 4.5 away last 2 years

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India most sixes 5/6 Sportsbook