India v Australia First Test Betting: No evidence Aussies can pass spin examination

Ed Hawkins
22 February 2017

Smith knows he is up against it

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Ed Hawkins previews the first Test from Pune, which starts in the early hours of Thursday, and finds it hard to find faith in the tourists...

"Considering we’re unsure of what the pitch will do, it may be best to stick to what we do know is true. And that is Australia struggle against turn on even mundane surfaces"

Recommended Bet
2pts India at 1.738/11

India v Australia
Thursday 23 Fenruary 04.00
TV: live on Sky Sports

India

India have not lost a home Test since 2012. They come up against an Australia team who have lost their last nine in Asia. A formality?

Perhaps. India are bristling with power here with Ravi Ashwin and Ravi Jadeja, their demonic spin twins, ready to cause havoc. The last time they met Australia in India they took an extraordinary 53 wickets between them.

They will have to be at their best. A pace-bowling combo of Ishant Sharma and Umesh Yadav could lack the required discipline. So Jayant Yadav, another spinner, will probably be added to the XI.

The top five is strong - Murali Vijay, KL Rahul, Chet Pujara, Virat Kohli, Ajinkya Rahane. And Ashwin's runmaking at No 7 makes him the MVP in world cricket. How much would he go for in a Test-style auction if Ben Stokes is worth £1.7m?

Australia

Australia were humbled 3-0 in Sri Lanka in a series in which they failed to even be competitive. It was a grave performance and one has to worry for them here given that nine of that squad have been picked again.

They will have had to learn fast lessons. But is it the Australian way to play spin well in Asia? History says not as we discuss in our series preview.

Much depends on David Warner (who has a poor record against tweak), Steve Smith and Shaun Marsh. Marsh is an unlikely potential saviour but his ton in Sri Lanka in the one Test he played means the Aussies are pinning their hopes on him.

Otherwise we are not convinced by a Nos 5-6-7 of Peter Handscomb, Mitchell Marsh and Matthew Wade. Mitchell Starc is at No 8 followed by Steve O'Keefe, the spinner, Josh Hazlewood and Nathan Lyon.

First-innings runs

The Maharashtra Cricket Stadium in Pune has not hosted a Test before. In the last ten first-class matches the first-innings scores read: 235-212-298-528-335-342-330-270-210. So there is no evidence of big runs. Nor is there any evidence of spinners taking charge in the third- or fourth-innings. The pitch report says it is very dry but Kohli is expecting slow turn.

Match odds

You can tell Australia are up against it when you hear skipper Smith speak. "We want to compete here against India. It's going to be a tough series, they've got some quality players in their line-up from 1 to 11. So yes, it's going to be difficult." It's a very un-Australian soundbite.

You can get 1.738/11 about another India win. If it wasn't for the fact they were 1.84/5 a few days ago this could be maximum bet territory. Australia are 4.77/2 with the draw about the same.

If India have not ordered a raging turner then the Aussies could have a squeak. Reverse swing is a factor at this venue which gives Starc a great opportunity.

But considering we're unsure of what the pitch will do, it may be best to stick to what we do know is true. And that is Australia struggle against turn on even mundane surfaces.

Top India runscorer

Kohli has a century here in ODI cricket. He goes off at 2/1 with Sportsbook. He is India's top runscorer in the last two years at home. But Pujara is not far behind and gets a 10/3 quote. He is 1.84/5 for a first dig 50. Rahane is fair value at 5/1.

Top Australia runscorer

Smith is the No 1 batsman in the world and is joint jolly with Warner at 11/4. The price about the latter is a poor one. The best bet could be Shaun Marsh who is rated at 7/2.

Recommended Bet

2pts India at 1.738/11

Ed Hawkins P-L

2017: +11.47pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017.
*Follow Ed on Twitter @cricketbetting